Just spent more time on data today: The Ethereum main-net gas fee has dropped to only 10% compared to the last cycle in the 2021 DeFi Summer.
I would say DeFi could possibly make a comeback, since:
1/ Lower gas fees mean reduced transaction costs for participating in DeFi activities, especially for small investors, significantly lowering the entry barrier.
2/ Lower gas fees encourage more frequent trading activities, such as adjusting positions in liquidity pools, conducting arbitrage, or participating in multiple protocols. These activities increase market liquidity and efficiency, potentially boosting yields.
3/ With reduced gas fees, users' net returns increase, making DeFi yields more attractive. For example, if the gas fee for a transaction drops from $50 to $0.09, the compression on participants' returns is significantly reduced.
4/ With higher "Real" income -- it push people more willing to re-invest in other DeFi projects. Which is great.
5/ 5/ People might not need non-EVM chains as much, since the current TVL (trust level) is still 90% primarily in ETH-related areas. This means #TON might face a more challenging environment to seek growth.