The market is now less than 2% from all-time highs, and yet something feels oddly frictionless. Since the 75k low, we haven’t seen any meaningful correction beyond 4–5%; leverage remains intact, and somehow, no significant flush has taken place. The climb has been persistent, uninterrupted, and surprisingly merciful to overexposed positions.
This isn’t to say the structure looks weak—on the contrary, it remains technically strong—but it’s hard to ignore how rarely Bitcoin offers this much one-sided momentum without first shaking some hands loose. When the path looks this smooth, history tends to suggest otherwise.
Breaking ATHs without any pause might still work, but it increases the odds of a shallow breakout; something that pierces through 110k only to snap back below 100k in an SFP-style move. A more constructive setup, in my view, would be a local trap around 108k, a fast liquidation dip toward 99k, and a strong buy response from there—clearing excess leverage without compromising the broader trend, and setting the stage for an extension toward 130k+.
In this context, some may consider hedging high-leverage or high-beta positions around 107.5k; not as a bearish call, but as a way to navigate a likely reset. Naturally, everyone manages risk in their own way—but an overpopulated rally rarely rewards the crowd for long.
This isn't about calling a top; it’s about recognizing when the rally might need to breathe. The healthiest thing for this market now might not be a vertical breakout, but a temporary jolt that clears the runway for what comes next.
Because when Bitcoin feels too easy, it usually means someone’s about to get reminded why it isn’t.
