The current market resembles a one-man show of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is soaring, while most altcoins are merely watching coldly, occasionally rising but struggling to keep up. This scenario reminds one of last year when BTC surged from 90,000 to 100,000—at that time, Bitcoin was also rising alone, with altcoins either being drained or stagnant until the final sprint phase ignited market sentiment.
Ethereum has risen sharply, with continuous inflow of ETF funds.
Among a host of altcoins, $ETH has recently shown commendable performance, barely keeping pace with Bitcoin. Behind this, the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs has played a significant role—net inflows for three consecutive days, reaching 64 million dollars last night. In contrast, BTC ETF saw an inflow of 330 million yesterday; if calculated by market capitalization ratio, ETH's capital absorption capability is quite strong.
On the other hand, the SEC has delayed the ETF approvals for XRP and DOGE, with the market expecting results to be available at the earliest in June-July, and possibly dragging into the fourth quarter. This means that for at least the next few months, ETFs will remain a scarce resource. Considering that most newly applied altcoin ETFs are PoS projects, their approval process is likely to accelerate only after ETH's staking function is fully developed.
Market sentiment is abnormal; is there really no celebration under new highs?
Compared to the last bull market, when $BTC broke 60,000, the market was already boiling—Musk tweeted in celebration, the community was in wild discussions, and even the aunties in the subway were talking about crypto. Now, as Bitcoin is about to reach new highs, the market is surprisingly calm, with many previously lively communities even silent.
This unusual calm may indicate that the current price is still not enough to ignite the market's fervent emotions. Even if BTC breaks 110,000, everyone might just faintly say 'oh.' The real FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions may only be fully triggered when it reaches 120,000 or even higher. From this perspective, the peak of this bull market might far exceed expectations, and even reaching 200,000 is not impossible.
The policy direction is subtle, with potential variables in the Chinese market.
Recently, rumors about China possibly easing crypto regulation have begun to circulate. There are reports that the central bank governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned that 'crypto policy will shift from prohibition to systematic planning,' and last week, He Lifeng in talks with the U.S. trade representative also inquired whether the U.S. would really include crypto in its strategic reserves.
If these rumors are true, a shift in the Chinese market could lead to a rapid surge in BTC—reaching 150,000 within two weeks is not a fantasy. However, historical experience tells us that domestic policies often have a double-edged effect on the crypto market. In the last bull market, despite the short-term negative impact of the 94 and 924 policies, they ultimately led to a larger market trend. This time, if favorable policies do materialize, will the market break through by leveraging the momentum, or will it reach a peak and fall back as the 'good news is fully priced in'? Caution is warranted.
Altcoins are stirring; which sectors are worth watching?
Although the overall performance of altcoins is currently mediocre, some targets have begun to show unusual movements:
- RWA Track: $OM rebounded strongly after experiencing a flash crash, and with the favorable Genius bill, it might spark another wave of market activity.
- Meme Coins: With Trump's dinner on May 22 approaching, TRUMP's popularity is rising, and the SEC chair's statement that 'Meme is not a security' has given the market a strong boost.
- AI Track: COOKIE surged by 20% in a single day, the staking model of VIRTUAL boosted the Agent sector, and AI concept coins like FET and BOTIFY also performed actively.
Summary: Patience in positioning, waiting for altcoin season.
In the current market, BTC is still the absolute protagonist, but ETH's strength may be a signal—altcoin season may not be far away. Once Bitcoin stabilizes above 110,000, the capital overflow effect might lead to rotations and explosive growth in sectors like #RWA赛道 , #AI , #meme板块 , #defi .
What needs to be done now is to maintain core positions while strategically investing in potential altcoins during dips. After all, the most profitable moments in a bull market often start quietly when most people in the market are still hesitant.
