【$BTC Market Analysis】2025.5.21
Just 1.6% away from the historical high, a bearish line suddenly appears, raising doubts in the market: Is it a top signal? Is a reversal imminent? Or is it a shakeout before a new high? Based on the market situation, we lean towards the latter but need to be wary of the risk of breaking key support levels.
① Why is there a sell-off close to the new high?
Pressure from selling at resistance levels: Investors who were previously trapped choose to take profits near the previous high, combined with short-term speculative funds locking in profits, leading to concentrated selling pressure. The market manipulators use this opportunity to clean out weak positions, avoiding a sell-off of profits after reaching a new high, thus reducing resistance for subsequent breakthroughs.
② The dividing line between bulls and bears: 104500 determines short-term direction
Upper pressure: 108300-109500 (previous high range, dense trapped positions); Key support: 104500 (if broken consecutively, the probability of a new high in the short term drops sharply, potentially entering a deep adjustment cycle); Bullish conditions: Price stabilizes above 106500 and continues to increase in volume, expected to sustain an upward trend; Adjustment target: If it weakens, slight pullback support can be seen around 104600.
Operational strategy: Closely monitor the effectiveness of support at 104500. If not broken, maintain a bullish bias with fluctuations; if it breaks, reduce positions to prevent risks. Market sentiment is at a critical point, patiently waiting for clear direction before taking action.
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