The Core Conditions of a Altcoin Season: BTC Price Increase + Market Share Decrease
Historically, altcoin seasons (like in 2017 and 2021) began when the BTC price continued to rise while its market share (BTC.D) simultaneously decreased. This “dual-track parallel” state indicates that funds overflow into the altcoin sector against the backdrop of BTC's price rise, resulting in a widespread rally. For example:
2017: BTC price rose from $1,000 to $20,000, market share dropped from 85% to 36%, and altcoins collectively surged.
2021: BTC rose from $29,000 to $69,000, market share dropped from 73% to 40%, with sectors like DeFi and NFTs leading the charge.
Current Status: Although BTC price has stabilized at $100,000, its market share has approached 65% (the highest since 2021), with institutional funds (like BlackRock and MicroStrategy) continuously pouring into BTC, causing the liquidity of altcoins to shrink. This contradictory pattern does not meet the traditional conditions for the initiation of an altcoin season.
