Recently, old-timers in the crypto circle have been murmuring: Why does Bitcoin, as the market anchor asset, seem unusually 'Buddhist' when altcoins like ETH and SOL are partying? Behind this seemingly weak performance, there are actually three major breakthrough secrets—when the historical new high of $110,000 is trampled underfoot, a 'super short squeeze' capable of rewriting the market structure may be counting down! 1. The underlying logic of Bitcoin's 'weak performance': the main force is laying out a big chess game! ❶ A historical chip vacuum zone is forming.
Currently, above $110,000 is the 'absolute no-man's land' left by the 'Black Swan' event on March 12, 2024. On-chain data shows: ▶ Only 230,000 BTC long-term dormant chips exist in the 112,000-125,000 range (accounting for 1.2% of circulation) ▶ The percentage of trapped positions above $130,000 is less than 0.8%. After breaking through, it will enter a 'zero-resistance acceleration channel'.
Compared to the breakout at $30,000 in 2023, the upper 15% trapped position pressure has decreased by 90% this time!
❷ Institutions are conducting 'counter-consensus positioning'.
Grayscale GBTC premium rate has narrowed for 7 consecutive days to -3.2% (historical bottom range), smart money is quietly accumulating through the ETF conversion channel.
CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surpassed $12 billion, setting a new high for 2024, with an institutional long-short ratio of 1.8:1.
Data platform Kaiko shows: When retail investors panic sell 100 coins, whale addresses on average pick up 320 coins, with the concentration of chips reaching its highest level since the 2021 bull market.
❸ The technical aspect is building a 'golden pit pattern'.
Weekly level: BTC has formed a 'long lower shadow doji' for 3 consecutive weeks, quickly reclaiming the key level of 105,000 after testing the 200-week moving average ($98,000).
Volume indicators: OBV energy wave has created a historical new high, and MACD is about to form a 'mid-air refueling' second golden cross above the zero axis.
Volatility index: BVOL index has fallen to 28 (before the 2024 bull market it was 35). Historical experience shows: After volatility shrinks to the 25-30 range, there will definitely be a 50%+ one-sided market within 60 days.
2. The 'triple detonator' for breaking $110,000.
🔥 First explosive point: The 'faith premium' brought by the historical new high.
Human psychological anchoring effect: After breaking the high point of 108,000 in 2024, the market will redefine the Bitcoin valuation system.
On-chain analyst PlanB's model shows: If it breaks 112,000, the existing game market will switch to 'incremental carnival', targeting $180,000 (2017 bubble top × 4 years inflation adjustment value).
🔥 Second explosive point: The 'gates for compliant capital are about to open'.
The 'quiet period' for the US SEC regarding spot ETFs will end on August 15, with the first batch of compliant funds expected to reach $50 billion.
New regulations from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission: Allowing retail investors to directly purchase BTC ETFs, with 1.6 million professional investor accounts already opened.
Grayscale's latest report: When BTC breaks $110,000, the global pension allocation ratio will increase from 0.3% to 1.2%, bringing over $200 billion in incremental capital.
🔥 Third explosive point: The 'long-short imbalance trap' in the derivatives market.
Binance / OKX perpetual contract data: Currently, the cumulative short position in the 105,000-110,000 range has reached $1.5 billion, and after breaking, every 1% increase will trigger $200 million in forced liquidations.
Historical case: When it broke $30,000 in 2023, it triggered $4.5 billion in short liquidations within 12 hours, pushing the price up 22% in a single day.
Market maker strategy: Institutions are creating a false breakthrough through 'limit orders + iceberg orders', actually accumulating 80,000 BTC liquidity in the 108,000-111,000 range.
3. The 'golden ambush points' that smart money is laying out.
🔍 Best accumulation range: $102,000-105,000 (three major safety margins).
① The 200-day moving average support: Currently, this moving average is at 101,800, and there have been 8 effective rebounds in the last 6 months. ② On-chain cost price: Long-term holders (LTH) have an average holding cost of 103,200. Falling below this range will trigger a whale repurchase mechanism. ③ Dense area of option exercise prices: The open interest of $100,000 call options expiring in August has reached 320,000 contracts, and institutions are building a 'bottom protection cushion'.
⚠️ Iron rules for risk control.
Position management: Before the breakout, it is recommended to hold 50% spot + 30% contracts (10x leverage), and after the breakout, gradually reduce contract holdings to 20%.
Stop-loss setting: Unconditionally exit if it effectively falls below $100,000 (2-hour K-line closes below), with a risk-reward ratio of >1:3.
Sentiment indicator: When the crypto fear and greed index > 75, initiate the 'staggered profit-taking mechanism', cashing out 20% profit for every $10,000 increase.
Conclusion: This may be the last 'ten-thousand level Bitcoin' in the next 5 years.
While the market is still struggling to understand why Bitcoin isn't rising, Wall Street giants have already voted with real money: $110,000 is not a resistance level, but the starting point of a new cycle! History has proven countless times: When Bitcoin breaks key psychological thresholds, the probability of hesitators missing out is 37 times higher than being trapped. What needs to be done now is not to complain about the market's grind, but to prepare positions—because the next time we see $100,000 might be during the 2026 correction cycle.
