Target price level for Bitcoin to break through previous high
If Bitcoin breaks through its previous high (109,588) this week, according to Fibonacci extension analysis, its price is expected to reach the range of 117,000 to 125,000. This target is derived by measuring the starting point, endpoint, and retracement position of the recent rise. Specific calculations show that the extension lines drawn from different starting points yield similar results, pointing to ranges of 117,000 to 123,000 or 118,000 to 125,000. Therefore, once Bitcoin sets a new historical high (ATH), investors can expect this price range.
However, this prediction still requires the cooperation of market trading volume and trend strength. Currently, the MACD energy bars have not shown explosive volume, indicating that the upward momentum still needs further confirmation.
Two timing opportunities for altcoins to take off
The timing of altcoin increases is closely related to Bitcoin's trend. Taking Ethereum as an example, its current price encounters resistance around 2,580, forming a phase high, with an overall bearish structure.
Participation in altcoins may occur under the following two conditions:
· Bitcoin breaks through and then retraces: If Bitcoin breaks through its previous high but faces resistance and falls back to around 104,000, quality altcoins may present low-entry opportunities.
· Bitcoin continues to rise and drives Ethereum to break through: If Bitcoin breaks through its previous high and creates a new high, while Ethereum breaks through the short-term resistance of 2,584 and the mid-term resistance of 2,860, altcoins will welcome substantial upward space. This is similar to the previous situation when altcoins collectively surged during Bitcoin's consolidation, with daily increases of 50%.
Investors need to pay attention to whether Ethereum breaks through key resistance levels to determine the timing for participating in altcoins.
Current market dynamics analysis
Bitcoin performed strongly this week, setting a record high daily closing price yesterday (106,944, approximately 107,000). Although it did not break through its previous high, it has solidified the upward trend. Hourly levels show Bitcoin rebounded after a pullback in the range of 104,000 to 104,500, providing about 3,000 points of upward opportunity. The stability of this support level lays the foundation for future breakthroughs. However, the market is currently dominated by short-term traders, with prices oscillating between 105,000 and 109,588, lacking firm long-term positions. Signs of top divergence still exist, and the MACD energy bars have not significantly expanded, indicating that the upward movement may require more momentum or news stimulation.
Favorable factors include the continuous net inflow of ETFs for several days, and short positions remain crowded at 1.07 to 1.08 billion, yet the price has not been significantly suppressed. This suggests that capital is absorbing the selling chips, and the medium-term bullish trend remains solid.
Summary
Overall, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking through its previous high is increasing. If it successfully breaks through 109,588, the target price range is between 117,000 and 125,000. The timing for altcoins to take off depends on whether Bitcoin retraces to 104,000 or whether Ethereum breaks through 2,860 and drives the overall market. We should closely monitor market dynamics and breakthroughs of key resistance levels, adjusting strategies flexibly. Currently, we can rely on 104,000 support to long Bitcoin while cautiously observing entry points for altcoins to seize potential upward opportunities.