Everything is happening at a moment when summer is approaching, usually a relatively calm time.
The US dollar index has fallen for three consecutive trading days, erasing all gains since the US-China talks were announced on May 7.
First, reports this morning about Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities triggered safe-haven buying in Swiss francs and yen, which has now evolved into a broader wave of dollar selling. Currently, global asset sensitivity remains very high; a single report has sparked a widespread dollar sell-off, reflecting more on market positioning leaning towards 'high leverage long positions in the dollar' that flee at any hint of bad news.
Second, Japan is about to start trade talks with the US, and if both sides mention the currency issue, it could likely lead to market misunderstandings, believing that Trump will force the yen to appreciate, which will exacerbate the dollar sell-off.
Third, US stock futures and US Treasury bonds are also falling along with the dollar, especially the latter, with the 10-year Treasury yield having breached the 4.5% warning level—this level is seen as the 'Trump line'. In April, it was precisely because this level was breached that Trump made the decision to pause tariffs for 90 days; this time, Trump will not stand idly by—if yields remain above this level, the market will speculate whether the US needs to take special measures to stabilize the situation. Today's market performance is further feedback to Moody's downgrade of the US rating, as people are increasingly concerned about the US fiscal situation. Trump's tax cuts and spending proposals will provoke the market's sensitive nerves, as this proposal will lead to huge deficits in the coming years.
Fourth, today is a trading day with light news, but the market is behaving unusually; if there is significant volatility tonight—this itself will be interpreted as an amplification, leading to a 'self-fulfilling' panic.
For the market to rise, new information is needed to help them shed concerns and continue the upward trend.#BTC挑战11万大关 $BTC
