Is the main force going to play the "double top" routine? First, squeeze out the shorts and then ambush them! Should I hold onto my coins or run away?
Many people are worried whether the market will form a "double top," similar to what happened at the end of the 2021 bull market—BTC created a double top around 65,000 and 69,000 after half a year, trapping a lot of people.
I see that this situation indeed has a probability of occurring, but before forming a double top, the main force is likely to first play some tricky moves: a quick pump to wash out all the shorts! Why? Look at the current market, the bearish sentiment is as thick as ink, and many people are waiting to short at this position, especially since we're close to historical highs, and technical indicators show divergences and death crosses, making it seem like everyone is either shorting or waiting, not daring to go long at all.
Think about it, when everyone is bearish, how will the main force play? Most likely, they will reverse and create a rebound! I guess Ethereum might slowly crawl up, approaching the 3000 mark, and by then the upward momentum might lose strength; but Bitcoin might suddenly make a move, directly breaking the previous high to around 110,000! At that time, those who have been waiting on the sidelines probably won't be able to sit still and will rush in to chase the high.
Once the price breaks through the new high, the stop-loss levels set by the previous shorts will seem like they are made of paper, and the bears will panic in an instant! After all, Bitcoin breaking the historical high often means a bigger market movement is coming, and the shorts will have to close their positions obediently. At this point, market sentiment might soar, and retail investors will rush to chase the increase, like grabbing cabbages.
But here comes the key point! If the main force suddenly turns around and dumps, for example, if Bitcoin falls back to around 100,000, and Ethereum drops from 3000 directly to 2500 or even lower, the market will immediately turn chaotic! Panic sentiment will spread rapidly, and many retail investors will likely be scared out of their wits and rush to cut their losses.
This wave of correction is too brutal, it's simply "killing two birds with one stone": on one hand, it cleans out all those chasing the high, and on the other hand, it reduces the selling pressure for the subsequent rise. After all, most people can't withstand such large fluctuations; as soon as the price drops, they hurry to stop-loss, and the main force can take the opportunity to pick up chips at a low price for the next round of increases!
