Today, ETH staged a thrilling roller coaster market, with the main force opening violently and breaking through the previous high of 2547.44 (the highest price marked in the image), but then two waves of waterfall-style selling hard pushed the price back to the 2500 round number. This combination of 'needle spike + stop loss sweep' left the bulls defenseless; two long upper shadow gravestone lines on the five-minute candlestick directly buried the greedy ones. The current market looks like a meat grinder paused.
The technical aspect harbors hidden dangers.
The current price is stuck in the death triangle between the MA7 moving average at 2519.81 and the MA30 moving average at 2529.35, with the MACD double lines dead-crossing downwards above the zero axis. This top divergence structure is simply a bearish nuclear bomb. What's more terrifying is the continuous shrinkage in trading volume; the 7,010 ETH trading volume from the morning's enticing rise was obviously orchestrated by the market maker (image shows VOLUME: 7,010.8620). The main force's chips are all held above 2547.44, ready to initiate a second harvest at any moment. Focus on the 2500 psychological defense line, where dual protective funds from spot and contract markets are gathered (the bottom of the image shows dense buy orders around 2500). If this level is lost, it may trigger a series of programmatic liquidation.
Unexpected whale activity spotted on-chain.
According to the latest data from Nansen, an anonymous whale address suddenly sold 21,000 ETH (about $54 million) at 3 AM, which directly caused a 3% instant imbalance in the liquidity pool on Uniswap V3. Interestingly, at the same time, large spot orders on Binance were continuously eating up sell orders below 2500; this 'left hand sells to the right hand' operation technique is suspected to be institutions preparing for the upcoming Cancun upgrade. Currently, on-chain lending rates have surged to 8%, and staking APY has broken through 12%; this distorted market interest rate structure is distorting the price discovery function.
Multidimensional signal contradictions in fierce battle.
DefiLlama data shows that ETH ecosystem TVL has seen a net inflow of over $2.3 billion for 7 consecutive days, but exchange balances have plummeted by 14% (the image shows the decline curve of exchange holdings), indicating that whales are accelerating their accumulation of chips. However, BitMEX's latest position report shows that the long-short position ratio has deteriorated from 1:3 to 1:6.8 (visible in the indicator area on the right side of the image). In this extreme market, it is advisable for retail investors to adopt a hedging strategy of 'placing buy orders at 2500 to catch falling knives + shorting at 2547.' Remember, ETH now is like Schrödinger's cat; only at the moment the price breaks through 2550 (marked resistance level in the image) or falls below 2480 (the area of dense stop-loss below) can we see the true intentions of the main force.
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