Writing today’s analysis comes with a heavy heart. It's never easy to reflect publicly on significant losses, but transparency matters. I’ve taken some heavy hits lately, and I feel responsible for sharing what went wrong and what lies ahead.

Current Position Overview

Bitcoin (BTC): Short position average at $93,000; current price: $100,300

Ethereum (ETH): Short position average at $1,830; current price: $2,015

Solana (SOL): Previously exited after losses; planning shorts at $167 and $173 with tight exits. A close above $174 would trigger a stop-out. Resistance is near $173.5.

My trend-based positions have now recorded six-figure losses, which will significantly impact this year’s returns. To all who have followed and supported me—I'm sincerely sorry.

On Community Inquiries

The influx of messages has been overwhelming. Many of you ask the same few questions:

1. Can a daily downtrend still develop?

2. Is there still hope for the bears?

3. My short hasn’t hit liquidation—what now?

For the third question, my recent performance suggests it’s better to seek advice from analysts with accurate recent calls. That said, here’s my honest perspective:

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1. Can a Daily Downtrend Still Emerge?

Yes, it's possible. But timing and price targets for this retracement remain uncertain.

I placed stop-losses at $100,100 for BTC and $2,010 for ETH because that psychological threshold of $100K attracts significant selling pressure from both long profit-takers and new shorts. If this level can’t stop upward momentum, we could see prices climb even higher.

Some suggest this rally is purely a short squeeze. While that’s partly true, it’s important to remember: the $100K level invites massive friction from all sides—profit-taking longs, aggressive shorts, and spot sellers. Surpassing it shows powerful momentum.

Technical View:

At the 4H level, we no longer see divergence, meaning we should expect another 4H uptrend after a pullback before the larger daily uptrend completes. So don’t expect a full reversal just yet.

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2. A Message to the Bears

People call me the "bear leader," but the truth is, I adjusted my macro view after BTC surged to $93,800 on April 22. On April 23, I publicly shifted from a bearish stance to a more bullish long-term outlook, aiming to re-enter on a deep pullback.

Some ask, “Why short if you believe in the bull market?” My answer: Timing.

Even in a bull market, corrective downtrends occur. I expected a retracement from $90K+ to $80K or lower. That was the logic behind my short. Unfortunately, the trade was mistimed.

You can short in a bull market—but you must accept losses when you're wrong.

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3. What to Do If You’re Still in Shorts?

The timing of the major bull wave appears delayed until July, meaning a corrective structure is still likely before then. However, lower targets for BTC have shifted upward—$91K may be as low as we go, with possible dips to $86K or $82K under ideal conditions.

Suggested strategy:

Hedge at daily MA250/EMA250 levels.

Exit losing shorts during an upcoming retracement window (next 2–3 weeks).

Reassess positions based on structural price action.

If BTC reaches $104,300, it signals that resistance around $100K has failed to contain the rally and that long-term holders are determined. Beyond $109K, resistance weakens; only Fibonacci extensions offer vague guidance.

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Macro & US Market Outlook

The Nasdaq faces significant resistance at 18,000. Since May 1, it has remained flat under that ceiling, despite heavy corporate buybacks totaling $192B (the highest since 1995).

Expect a daily downtrend in Nasdaq soon, wrapping up a weekly decline from 20,200, which may pave the way for a weekly rebound. This rebound is unlikely to break previous highs—but Bitcoin might.

Big Picture:

Q2 U.S. economic data might appear strong due to Q1 tariff-driven consumer panic buying.

However, signs of deceleration are emerging (e.g., lower port activity).

A Fed rate cut is expected on July 31, which should spark the true beginning of Bitcoin’s main upward wave.

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Market Outlook: Timeline & Forecast

Early July: Anticipated start of main upward leg

Late July–Early August: Sharp rally post-Fed decision

September–October: Likely market top

Post-Peak: Sideways to bearish trend

The weekly BTC chart has printed five consecutive green candles, which is statistically rare. A MACD golden cross is imminent next week, signaling short-term bullish momentum—but also increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal in the following 2–3 weeks.

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Strategic Playbook

Short-Term Plan:

If BTC spikes to $109,000 next week:

Short entry: $109,000

Stop-loss: $110,000

Target: $102,000

Favorable risk/reward setup.

Medium-Term Plan:

On pullback to daily MA250:

Go long (spot): BTC 50%, SOL 30%, other alts 20%

Leverage strategy:

100x position (1%) at EMA250

Add 2% position at MA350

Exit: During post-rally consolidation

Note: Avoid ETH spot despite recent strength. Heavy resistance exists at $2,400 and $2,800. SOL, in contrast, remains structurally healthier.

Long-Term Plan:

After Q3’s primary wave peaks and transitions into a sideways phase, begin building long-term short positions, with a target exit at $82,500.

Altcoin Focus:

Watchlist: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, VIRTUAL.