"Is Bitcoin's rise to six figures a new historical high or is it falling into the 2021 cycle of 'first luring the bulls, then crashing'?"

"On-chain data alerts are sounding, trading activity is plummeting, can Bitcoin really hold up after such a surge?"


The double-top pattern from four years ago is re-emerging in an unsettling way. This time, it may be more complex and more dangerous.



[Let's first review: how did the 'double top' of 2021 happen?]


In 2021, Bitcoin first surged to $65,000 in April, against the backdrop of Coinbase's listing, MicroStrategy's frenzied accumulation, and other super bullish factors.

It seemed like an 'unstoppable' rise, but at the moment the bullish news was realized, a large amount of capital shorted, and Bitcoin fell to $28,000 within two months, plunging the entire market into panic.


However, as many prepared to 'welcome a bear market', Bitcoin rebounded and reached a second high of $69,000 in November of that year.

But that peak lasted for less than a week, after which it began a deep correction lasting a year, triggering a complete industry reshuffle:


  • Dozens of exchanges have closed down,


  • Multiple DeFi protocols have collapsed,


  • Investment institutions are reducing their holdings, and retail investors are deeply trapped.



Today's Bitcoin is also standing at a similar crossroads.




Currently, the Bitcoin price has surged to $100,000 again, driven by Trump's 'crypto-friendly' policy and continuous inflow of ETF funds. However, on-chain data reveals extremely critical changes:


✅ RSI has shown bearish divergence three times in a row

—— In March 2024, December, and May 2025, three new price highs did not accompany a synchronized rise in RSI.

This means: while prices are rising, market momentum is weakening.


✅ Trading volume has significantly decreased

—— Compared to the initial breakthrough of $100,000, the trading volume is significantly declining both on-chain and on traditional trading platforms.

CME Bitcoin futures contracts have failed to break through 35,000 contracts three times in four weeks, far below the previous peak of 65,000-85,000 contracts.


✅ Open interest (OI) diverges from price trends

—— The current OI is 13% lower than the January peak, while the price is only 5.8% lower than then. This is eerily similar to the trend in November 2021: OI shrinking + price overstated = potential top signal.



[But is this really the same as 2021?]


The answer is: similar but more complex.


✅ The market structure is different

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow institutions to allocate BTC directly from compliant channels without going through grayscale or OTC;


  • MicroStrategy has taken on greater leverage and has become a 'BTC dollar-cost averaging machine';


  • More and more businesses and high-net-worth individuals are adopting long-term holding strategies.



All of this makes Bitcoin's holding structure more stable, making it less likely to be breached by a single negative event.


But because of this, once large institutions reduce their holdings or ETFs experience continuous outflows, the reaction will be more severe.


✅ The risks of leverage and meme coins have increased

In this round of rising, a large amount of capital has flowed into the 'meme coin market' and leveraged contracts—these funds have no long-term intention and will quickly withdraw at the first sign of volatility.

This means: if the market reverses, the speed will be faster and the damage will be greater.



[What will happen if we really head towards a 'double top'?]


If Bitcoin really replicates the trends of 2021—surging to $110,000 or even $120,000 in the short term, followed by another decline, it may trigger the following chain reactions:


  • ETF funds net outflow, exacerbating market panic;


  • High-leverage players like MicroStrategy are on the brink of liquidation;


  • Meme coins and numerous NFT projects see their valuations halved instantly;


  • The TVL in the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem quickly shrinks by over $6.3 billion;


  • Retail investors are buying high, social sentiment is reversing, and market enthusiasm is plummeting.



Ultimately, the market may enter another long adjustment period, with project layoffs, ecosystem contraction, and declining trading volume... everything familiar will happen again.



[How to identify risks and opportunities in advance?]


To truly avoid the emotional traps similar to 2021, the key is not to predict the top, but to grasp real-time changes in on-chain data and fund movements.

At this time, the role of Mlion.ai is not just to 'watch the market', but to:


  • Using on-chain data dashboards to track BTC futures positions and Open Interest changes;


  • Utilizing AI sentiment analysis to monitor social media platforms and large wallet behaviors;


  • In-depth analysis of news to identify ETF fund changes and policy trends in real-time;


  • Using a price prediction engine to determine whether the current rise has continuity or reversal signals.



When the overall market starts to show 'false prosperity' and trading activity decreases, Mlion.ai can help you discover the 'water temperature cooling' in advance, grasping exit nodes;

Conversely, if the market shows a real breakout, it can also help you verify whether the signal is solid and reliable, preventing missing out on opportunities.



Bitcoin may repeat the 'double top', but you don't have to repeat being cut.

With Mlion.ai, be the one who exits early or accurately increases holdings, rather than being a retail investor who regrets only after the on-chain data warns a second time.


#BTC

The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!