The biggest news last night was that the GENIUS stablecoin bill passed the Senate's second procedural motion vote. Although this does not mean the bill has passed, the next steps involve debate and amendments in the Senate, a final vote in the Senate, review in the House of Representatives, coordination between both houses, and presidential signing. Although there is still a long way to go before the bill becomes law, the impact of this stablecoin bill on cryptocurrency is still significant.
What specific benefits does this bill bring to cryptocurrency?
Firstly, it will bring huge capital exposure. The stablecoins we currently use, USDC and USDT, are still considered niche assets in Wall Street's eyes, with compliance and regulation actually limiting large capital entry. If the stablecoin bill is passed, then institutions will have no concerns. Some institutions predict that this bill will increase the stablecoin market size from $200 billion to $2 trillion. If this is true, there will be no worries about the liquidity and bull market for altcoins.
Last night, AAVE, FXS, ENA, PENDLE, and CRV all saw increases of around 10-20%. At present, other than playing with this concept, there are no other options in the secondary market. The upcoming market may return to mainstream narratives like RWA, AI, DeFi, and meme. However, a true altcoin bull market must wait for Bitcoin to reach new highs, so everyone should be patient.
The conditions for a bull market in the second half of the year are now in place:
FTX will release $5 billion in liquidity at the end of the month.
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in the second half of the year.
The US stablecoin bill has been passed.
The US credit crisis continues to benefit gold and Bitcoin.
All of the above are certain events, and there are certainly other potential benefits. In short, there are significant opportunities in the second half of the year, and everyone must not fall before dawn. Stay away from contracts and maintain necessary cash flow.
The real market for altcoins will definitely come after Bitcoin reaches a new high:
Current observations indicate that every round of altcoin surges is basically inseparable from Bitcoin's 'leading charge'. Simply put, once Bitcoin breaks through the previous high, both capital and sentiment will heat up rapidly, giving altcoins a chance to take off.
From October 2023 to March 2024, and from November to December 2024, in both rounds, Bitcoin surged first, followed by altcoins. In this round, Bitcoin's key point is $110,000. If it reaches this position, the altcoin market may gradually start, and whether altcoins perform well depends on whether Bitcoin is strong.
Currently, many altcoins' movements seem to be in a brewing stage, with specific patterns being quite consistent. Prices are narrowing, looking like they are about to explode, but the prices just won't rise. Whether they will break through next depends on Bitcoin's attitude.
If Bitcoin smoothly breaks through $110,000, it will be like a command, directly igniting market sentiment, and the bullish pattern will be officially established. At that time, many altcoins will begin to rise like a flash. However, if Bitcoin hesitates at this position and chooses to move sideways for a while, the lower edge of the wedge may instead become a good buying opportunity.
Of course, most altcoins' 'wedge patterns' have not yet reached the final stage and are still in the middle, so fluctuations may continue. If you are still waiting for an entry opportunity, you might want to closely monitor Bitcoin's movements: if it breaks through, it may bring about a collective market; if it continues to adjust, we can wait patiently at the lower edge.
In short, if you want to buy altcoins, wait for BTC to spike; if you want altcoins to explode, wait for BTC to break new highs!
