Daily K trend analysis:
Bitcoin experienced an astonishing V-shaped reversal from the 102,000 position last night, rising nearly 4,500 points straight to the 106,500 area. The resistance level of 105,100 we provided yesterday did indeed generate some feedback, but the second resistance level automatically failed due to not meeting the conditions of the bearish Gartley pattern (which needs to pull back at least to the 0.382 position). Similarly, the anticipated 0.886 reversal position does not meet the harmonic pattern standard because the price didn't even touch the 0.382 retracement level. This also means that last night's bearish trend was difficult to grasp through conventional methods, unless investors placed orders directly at the 0.886 position, but this lacks clear logical support. It is worth noting that we emphasized yesterday to wait for the upward trendline to be broken before chasing shorts, and it has been proven that Bitcoin indeed found support at the trendline and rebounded strongly, validating our judgment.
On the daily level, yesterday closed with a vertical line candlestick, which needs special attention: if this type of candlestick appears at the bottom of a downward process, it often indicates strong resistance from bulls, possibly a reversal signal; but currently, this vertical line appears during an upward process and should be seen more as a continuation candlestick or a potential reversal candlestick. If today's close forms a bearish column, then the vertical line combined with the bearish column may constitute a top model (similar to a doji + bearish column combination); however, before the close, a reversal cannot be confirmed. This is different from the bearish engulfing pattern mentioned yesterday; the appearance of a vertical line indicates that the market needs another day to confirm the direction.
In terms of the MACD indicator, the bearish volume is still dominant, and last night's rally did not change the dead cross state, indicating that the risk of decline remains. However, the situation at the 4-hour level has changed significantly: the dead cross divergence mentioned yesterday has been altered by last night's strong rally, and the MACD has formed a golden cross with sufficient trading volume (exceeding the previous decline volume). This has led to a clear contradiction in the market: the daily level dead cross presses down, while the 4-hour level golden cross provides upward momentum, forming a pattern of "mutual combat".#比特币走势分析
Previous review:
In yesterday's analysis, we raised the following key points:
The 105,100 position (downward swing 0.618 retracement) has a certain feedback effect
Breaking the upward trendline is a necessary condition for chasing shorts
Bitcoin needs to break below the upward trendline to turn into a bearish market
These key judgments have been validated by the market, especially the significant support role of the upward trendline, proving that our technical framework is still effective in the current market environment. However, due to the dramatic changes in the market last night, the daily and 4-hour levels exhibited directional divergence, bringing uncertainty to today's operations.
Resistance level:
Resistance level 1: 114,650 (daily bearish shark 1.13 false breakout position)
Resistance level 2: 110,250 (bearish crab 1.618 target level + near previous highs)
Support level:
Support level 1: 104,800-104,300 (15-minute level Vigas channel line + 1.13 false breakdown position)
Support level 2: 98,450 (support level analyzed yesterday, still effective)
Support level 3: 94,800 (support level analyzed yesterday, still effective)
$BTC
Market analysis:
Bitcoin is currently in a clear state of divergence in technical indicators: the daily MACD maintains a dead cross, but the 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross with sufficient trading volume. This divergence makes short-term directional judgment difficult; it is recommended that most investors (especially those who are flat or unclear in direction) temporarily observe within the 5,000-point range of 107,200-102,000, waiting for clearer breakout signals.
Last night's V-shaped reversal formed a new possible harmonic pattern - the bearish crab pattern, with its 1.618 target level near 110,250, close to the previously noted psychological resistance level (previous highs), creating a new resistance area. In terms of support, the range of 104,800-104,300 (corresponding to the 15-minute level Vigas channel line and 1.13 false breakdown position) forms a short-term support band. The two deep support levels of 98,450 and 94,800 analyzed yesterday are still effective, but under the current circumstances following the V-shaped reversal, the probability of reaching these levels has decreased.
The main operational strategy is divided into three parts:
Range observation strategy (recommended):
Temporarily observe within the 107,200-102,000 range, waiting for clearer directional signals
Avoid opening large positions in the case of divergence between daily and 4-hour indicators
This strategy is suitable for most investors, especially those who are flat or unclear in direction
Bullish strategy (higher risk):
Only suitable for firmly bullish or "super bulls" investors
Entry point: 104,800-104,300 range (Vigas channel line retracement + 1.13 false breakdown position)
Stop loss level: 103,900 (0.618 reversal level)
Stop loss condition: 15-minute level candlestick breaks below the 0.618 level
This strategy has higher risks; it is recommended to control positions
Resistance level judgment strategy:
Closely monitor the performance of the 110,250 resistance level (bearish crab 1.618 target level)
If the price approaches this level, observe for reversal signs and consider light positions to short
After confirming the breakthrough of this resistance level, the target can be adjusted to 114,650 (the daily bearish shark 1.13 false breakout position)
This strategy requires waiting for the price to approach the resistance level before making a decision
Important technical reminder:
The daily line has closed with a vertical line, and we need to wait for today's close to confirm whether a top model has formed
The daily MACD remains in a dead cross, while the 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating a clear divergence in technical indicators
Last night's V-shaped reversal had sufficient trading volume, showing that bulls still have some strength
The risk of range oscillation is high; it is recommended that most investors wait for clear direction before entering the market
The trendline support has been validated, indicating the effectiveness of the technical analysis framework
Ethereum analysis supplement:
#以太坊走势观察
The daily MACD level for Ethereum is similar to Bitcoin; it is also showing a continuous weakening of bullish volume and is close to a dead cross, but has not officially crossed. It is noteworthy that its daily candlestick shows a bottom with a long lower shadow, with two consecutive candlesticks exhibiting long lower shadows, indicating some support strength at the bottom and the possibility of a rebound.
In the short term, Ethereum may be forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern, but from the MACD indicator perspective, it is not very standard due to the lack of clear golden cross divergence or volume divergence (both are at a flat state). For investors who are firmly bullish, they may consider trying to go long near 2450 (support-resistance swap position + 50% retracement overlap area) to take advantage of the upward after the head and shoulders bottom formation.
However, like Bitcoin, Ethereum is currently also in a state of technical indicator divergence, so it is recommended to control positions or mainly observe. If operations are indeed necessary, 2450 is a key support level and can serve as a reference point for bulls to enter.
Summary: Bitcoin experienced a V-shaped reversal last night, forming a divergence between the daily and 4-hour indicators, increasing the difficulty of short-term judgment. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended that most investors temporarily observe within the range of 107,200-102,000; those who are firmly bullish may consider trying to go long in the range of 104,800-104,300, with a stop loss set at 103,900; meanwhile, pay attention to the performance of the two resistance levels at 110,250 and 114,650. For Ethereum, it may be forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern, with key support at 2450, but there is also a divergence in technical indicators, so it is recommended to control positions or observe. Overall, the current market direction is unclear; it is advisable to patiently wait for clearer signals to appear and avoid excessive trading within the range.