The current price of BTC is $105,100. Yesterday's candlestick chart showed an end to the upward trend, suggesting a risk of correction. Volume analysis indicates that bearish forces are strengthening, and the market may face adjustment pressure in the short term.

On-chain data: The net inflow of Bitcoin into US spot ETFs is 6,272 BTC (approximately $667 million), indicating strong confidence from institutional investors. Small players (holding <1 BTC) have slightly increased their positions (+0.55%), while medium to large players (holding 100-10,000 BTC) have significantly increased their holdings (+0.9% and +0.85%). However, holders of 1-10 BTC continue to sell off, reflecting short-term profit-taking behavior. The net outflow from platforms coincides with a surge in OTC trading, suggesting that major funds may be using a 'pump and dump' strategy to transfer chips to OTC cash outs, rather than genuinely being bullish.

Chip distribution: Chips are accumulating around the $102,000 level, providing some support; the $93,000-$98,000 range has dense chips with minimal reduction, still representing the strongest support level.

Macroeconomic environment: The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in June and July exceeds 91% and 66%, respectively. US Treasury yields remain high, and US-China trade frictions are intensifying, increasing market uncertainty. Although negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and trade prospects bring some optimism, weakening interest rate cut expectations may suppress the performance of risk assets.

Summary and outlook: BTC's short-term operational difficulty is high; while there is a possibility of reaching new highs, sustainability is in question. If the price hits a new high, risks may follow. Investors need to be wary of major funds offloading at high levels, paying attention to the performance at the $102,000 support level and the strong support range of $93,000-$98,000. Exercise caution and avoid chasing highs. #BTC