$BTC Market Analysis: The Critical Point of Bull-Bear Tug-of-War Has Arrived
Currently, Bitcoin's 1-hour level shows a typical "last gasp of a strong bow" situation. Although the EMA double lines are in a bullish arrangement, the price deviation from the moving average has reached 4.3%, the largest deviation since May 12.
What is more concerning is that the price range of $104,000-$105,000 is like a desert no man's land, with the chip distribution showing that the turnover in this area has dropped by 68% compared to the previous day. This liquidity vacuum is very likely to trigger a "stampede" market.
The KDJ three lines are diverging in an inverted trumpet shape, a pattern that has appeared three times in May, with the first two triggering sharp declines of 3.8% and 5.2% respectively. More intriguingly, the current peak formation happens to appear just below the previous high of $105,200 at a 0.3% position, and this "sword hanging" structure often comes with a risk of a market shift.
The primary defense line at $104,000 is the "mass grave" from the bull-bear battle on May 16, where 235,000 BTC stop-loss orders are piled up.
If this level is breached, it will test the second defense line at $103,200, where on-chain data shows there is a strong support zone of 470,000 BTC.
The main force's movements show signs: Data from May 19 indicates an unusual combination of "long positions reduction + short positions increase" among the top 10 exchanges by open interest, and this divergence often signals a short-term directional choice.
It is recommended to focus on two signals: If the 1-hour trading volume breaks through $3.5 billion and stabilizes above $105,500, one can follow the trend to go long; if three consecutive K lines close below $104,000, one should be wary of a deep correction to the risk of $102,800.
At this moment, the market is like a fully drawn bowstring; it is advised for holders to move their stop-loss to $103,800 to protect profits, and newcomers should adopt a "breakout pullback" strategy.
After effectively breaking through $105,500, wait for a pullback to stabilize at $104,800 before gradually building positions. Remember, the current leverage level has reached a dangerous threshold, and any fluctuation of more than 2% could trigger a chain liquidation.
Are you stuck? When to bottom out? It's still the same saying, confused and helpless without knowing what to do, click on the avatar to comment. I need fans, you need references
