Many people are asking: when will altcoins finally see a real big market?

In my observation, every round of altcoin surges relies heavily on Bitcoin leading the charge. Simply put, once Bitcoin breaks its previous high, market sentiment gets a boost, and the funds start flowing, giving altcoins a chance.

For instance, from October 2023 to March 2024, and from November to December 2024, both phases saw Bitcoin break out first, followed by altcoins slowly taking off. This time around, Bitcoin's key position is at 110,000. If it can truly break through this point, we can basically say that the market has started. Whether altcoins can keep up depends on Bitcoin's strength.

Currently, many altcoins' movements are actually brewing, and their patterns are quite similar—most are forming a 'descending wedge'. In simple terms: the price is narrowing, looking like it is about to explode at any moment. These coins have already reached the upper edge of the wedge; whether they break through depends on Bitcoin's actions.

If Bitcoin successfully surpasses 110,000, the market sentiment will ignite, and the bullish trend will be basically established. At that point, many altcoins will suddenly surge, too fast for you to react. But if Bitcoin gets stuck here and chooses to consolidate, it may actually provide a great opportunity for low buys at the lower edge of the wedge.

Of course, most altcoins are still in the middle of the wedge and haven't reached the tail end yet, so the fluctuations may continue for a while. If you're still waiting to enter, it might be wise to keep a close eye on Bitcoin: if it breaks through, it could trigger a collective surge; if it continues to adjust, we can wait patiently at the lower edge.

In summary: it all depends on whether Bitcoin can break 110,000.

The recent peak for Dogecoin may far exceed expectations.

From the last peak of 0.48 down to 0.13, the drop was as high as 73%, nearly reaching the maximum drop of a bear market; the entire washing process was quite thorough.

From last December to early May, Dogecoin continuously dropped for six months, during which the chip turnover was very thorough.

Since mid-March, trading volume has been consistently low. Although it increased from 0.13 to 0.26 in May, doubling, the trading volume hasn't significantly expanded. Based on this volume, the market is still at a very early stage.

This price movement is different from past bull markets; it feels like it is building up a strong explosive force. It is difficult to estimate the peak this time; it may far exceed expectations. But also be cautious, the more this kind of movement happens, the more likely it is to lead to extreme fluctuations, making it much harder to profit.

Some personal views on DeFi protocols.

Lending Protocols.

AAVE remains the most stable; its fundamentals are much stronger than in the last bull market. Last round peaked at 500; breaking a new high this time shouldn't be a problem. Overall, it offers better cost-effectiveness than other lending protocols.

MORPHO is somewhat of a rookie, but its current valuation is a bit high; it's suitable for those who truly believe in its future potential to take a gamble.

DEX (Decentralized Exchange).

I've studied the ve(3,3) model, like AERO, but this method of constantly pulling in new projects to 'suck blood' is not very sustainable and is hard for mainstream users to accept.

UNI has a lot of technical innovations, such as Unichain, fee mechanisms, MEV profit-sharing, etc., but its price is still far from the last peak, making it difficult for this bull market to reach new highs.

CRV's TVL is very different from the last round, and it will depend on whether it can capture the RWA and stablecoin markets. If you want to participate in CRV, it might be safer to bet on some downstream projects within its ecosystem.

Interest Rate Derivatives (IRS).

Pendle is the big winner this round, having become one of the key infrastructures of DeFi. Although the chips are concentrated and volatility is high, it is well-suited for long-term dollar-cost averaging.

The team is reliable, and the product experience surpasses competitors (like Spectra) by miles, leaving plenty of room for future development.

Perpetual Contract DEX:

Currently, the hottest is HYPE, but the entire track is divided into two mainstream models:

• LP and counterparty models like GMX.

• Centralized order books like dYdX.

Currently, it's still hard to capture long-tail assets; it can only rely on rates, experiences, or airdrop users. There aren't many that genuinely rely on product innovation. The one I am most optimistic about is still HYPE.

Stablecoins:

ENA is one of the more interesting projects in this round of DeFi, attracting a batch of lower-risk users with 'funding rates', and many protocols have started to follow suit. However, the problem is that this gameplay is too easy to copy, and whether it can maintain its position through business development remains uncertain.

USUAL's token mechanism has a bit of a Ponzi flavor; ultimately, it still relies on profits earned from RWA. To stabilize in the long term, it must rely on various partnerships to integrate its profits into DeFi Lego and CEX, gradually squeezing out excess.

Let's talk about $TRUMP:

Although many people are bearish on TRUMP now, I believe once the bull market starts, TRUMP will definitely surge. This is a highly certain opportunity. Don't forget, TRUMP rose from bottom to peak, with increases of hundreds of times, and the current price is at 12U, already deeply corrected, basically at the bottom.

Why do I say this? Look at the previous SHIB and PEPE; both surged after going mainstream, then consolidated for 1-2 months before skyrocketing tenfold. TRUMP has been stagnant for over four months and is unlikely to fall much further.

Moreover, TRUMP's influence is genuinely global. I have a few relatives; when I advised them to dollar-cost average into BTC, ETH, and SOL, they didn't take it seriously. But on the day TRUMP launched, they all came to me on WeChat asking how to buy. This is the first project since the Dogecoin and SHIB boom in 2021 that has brought outsiders into the fold.

Everyone in the circle knows that 'massive capital + top-tier narrative + new entrants = bull market'. A second surge for TRUMP, if it happens, could reasonably be five times.

Recently, everyone has been asking when they can increase positions in $plume?

0.16-0.1 is an important central area at the daily level; those who like left-side trading can pyramid add positions in this price range, while on the right side there are two scenarios:

1. If it maintains above the upper edge of the central, observe whether there is a bottom formation + secondary bottom divergence before re-entering.

2. Returning to the central area, in extreme cases back to the lower edge, observing whether there is a bottom formation + secondary bottom divergence before re-entering.

Anticipation, all-in, emotional averaging—90% of people are liquidated due to these three deadly traps. How many have you fallen into?

Real leverage = position value / stop-loss capital.

If the principal is 10,000U, opening 10x leverage but only daring to set a stop-loss of 100U, the actual leverage can instantly soar to 100 times!

The platform's designation of 'low leverage' is just a facade; your greed is the real risk amplifier.

90% of liquidators die from these three fatal habits.

Anticipation: fantasizing about recovering losses during downturns, resulting in forced liquidation.

All-in: betting your entire fortune on one trade, volatility leads to total loss.

Emotional averaging: averaging down when prices drop, chasing highs when prices rise, ultimately losing control of positions.

The essence of contracts: a game of 'harvesting corpses'.

The money you earn comes from the margins of others' liquidations.

In a bull market, shorting retail investors chasing highs; in a bear market, bottom-feeding during panic selling. Profitability is unrelated to price movements, only to the timing of 'picking up corpses'.

Professional players vs. gambler mentality.

Gambler: full margin bet on a hundred-fold coin, curses the market after liquidation.

Professionals: 5% position for trial trades, clear stop-loss, waiting for others to make mistakes.

Survive to pick up money.

80% of the time in cash, 20% of the time targeting high risk-reward opportunities.

The more frantic the market, the more one must restrain themselves—your task is to 'survive until the bodies pile up'.

Final Warning.

If you can't learn 'stop-loss' and 'position management', contracts are just a legal casino for you.

Remember: the market lacks stars, but misses the longevity.