Ethereum surged nearly doubled at $ETH , with a stark contrast between hot and cold behind it!

The price of Ethereum skyrocketed from a low of $1385 to $2738, an increase of nearly 97.7%. On the surface, it seems to be thriving, but in reality, it hides the stark contrast of capital games. Institutional funds show a cold attitude towards ETFs, yet the derivatives contract open interest has broken through $32.2 billion, setting a new historical high. Is this surge a return to value or a prelude to a bubble?

Market fund flow: As of May 18, the net assets of the US ETH ETF amounted to $8.97 billion, only accounting for 2.89% of Ethereum's total market value, far below Bitcoin's ETF at 5.95%.

At the end of April, Ethereum's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) turned positive, peaking at 0.328 on May 17, still in the early stages of a bull market. When prices rebounded, the number of addresses with on-chain balances exceeding 1 decreased, with some bottom-fishing funds taking profits, but the proportion of profitable addresses has reached 60%. At the same time, on May 14, the contract open interest reached $32.249 billion, comparable to the high prices at the beginning of the year, indicating a surge in market betting enthusiasm.

On-chain data: In terms of activity, the number of active addresses has fluctuated between 400,000 and 600,000 for years, with a recent breakthrough trend. TVL in USD rose from $45 billion to $64.6 billion, but ETH staking amount decreased by 20% since April. Gas prices fell significantly, averaging 3.572 Gwei on May 16, a year-on-year decrease of 51.76%, yet this did not lead to an increase in the number of transactions.

Ethereum mainnet: It clearly entered an active period after the beginning of 2025. The activity level in this cycle is significantly higher than in 2024, approaching the peak period from 2021 to 2022. However, from the revenue data, the recent increase in trading activity mainly comes from stablecoin-related transactions, with USDT generating $568 million in fees on Ethereum in the last 30 days.

Staking data shows: Continuous net outflow from mid-April to early May, with Coinbase experiencing a 30% outflow in staking over the past six months. DEX trading activity has rebounded, but mainly relies on stablecoins, with USDT generating $568 million in fees on Ethereum in the last 30 days, solidifying Ethereum's top position in stablecoin issuance, accounting for over 50% of the issuance volume.

Technical pattern: Ethereum's long-term cycle pattern, at the weekly level, is still below the MACD, weaker than Bitcoin’s pattern. Currently facing a large amount of chips in the upper range of 2750-2850, it is difficult to break through in the short term. This is the first real breakout since it fell below in early March, with the lowest point recently around 2318. There is still a chance to retest the 2200-2300 range, making it possible to build a position for the medium to long term.