Onchain nowadays is mostly about being good at trend detection.

You’re not pricing current value - you’re front-running belief. It’s about catching the reflexive loop before it becomes obvious.

Key questions:

1) Is this a fad or something sticky? (Hold vs flip)

2) Am I still early in the value-attention gap?

3) Is there real cult/community energy or just passing noise?

4) How easily will others latch on: KOLs, founders (of the project chain), maybe some Web2 players? (basic 2nd order thinking)

The hardest part for most is 1:

The struggle to tell if it’s a fleeting fad or the start of a real trend.

Do you over-believe? Over-position?

That call shapes everything: your size, your conviction, and whether you can DCA or need to babysit it.

If you really think about it few plays this cycle have actually walked that line.