[20.5.2025] Long/Short Ratio 4h BTC – Consolidation wave before the 'G hour'

The 4h Long/Short ratio chart of BTC has recently shown two notable reversal phases in the past 5 days:

18/5, 11h00: Long had a maximum dominance, with a ratio reaching 53.4% against Short 46.6%. At this moment, buying pressure was intense, but shortly after, the price only fluctuated narrowly before reversing. This is a sign of a 'failed fomo' – traders rushed into Long without enough strength to push the price.

19/5, 19h00: Another wave of Long, but the number of Long accounts surged to nearly 0.95 – meaning 95% of people were holding Long. Most opened positions in the range of 105–106k, just before the drop to 102k.

Currently (20/5, early morning), both Long/Short volume and the number of Long/Short accounts are plummeting: Long is only 45%, while Short dominates at 55%. This movement indicates that those who hurried to 'buy the top' are now cutting losses, while Short regains advantage.

Psychological & Tactical Consequences

1. Clear bull trap

Two strong Longs on the ratio but unable to hold the price are a warning that small traders often lose when chasing short-term tops.

2. Short advantage

When Short dominates both volume and number of accounts, the market often experiences a deeper pullback. A scenario dropping to test the 100–101k range is very likely.

3. Personal strategy

Short probing: after 15 minutes of the 4h candle closing below 104k, I will go short, SL 1.2%, TP 3–4%.

Buy the dip: if the price approaches 100k and the 4h Long/Short ratio starts to rise back above 0.5, I will consider a small long, SL near the bottom.

Avoid FOMO: do not rush in when seeing a sudden increase in Long/Short volume – it is often a trap.

Money flow reverses after the brief Long race. At this point, one should not guess the bottom but closely monitor the ratio fluctuations and time the moment when Short 'runs out of leverage'.