(The Fed's printing wave hits in June 2025! Are altcoins a wealth carnival or a nightmare of returning to zero?)

At this critical juncture in June 2025, a 'crypto storm' triggered by the Fed's printing may be imminent. As the Fed turns on the printing machine to absorb up to $1.42 trillion in U.S. debt, the cryptocurrency market will face a brutal differentiation, with the fate of altcoins becoming uncertain—will it usher in a final frenzy or plunge into the abyss of zero? This involves a fierce collision between macroeconomic laws and the unique dynamics of the crypto space.

1. The Fed's Printing Press: A 'Helpless Move' Amidst the U.S. Debt Crisis

- Debt Crisis Approaching: By June 2025, the U.S. will have $6.5 trillion in national debt maturing, accounting for 26% of its GDP. However, major debt holders like China and Japan have reduced their holdings of U.S. debt from 40% in 2015 to 23%, forcing the Fed to step in to absorb 22% of the new debt issuance, which is approximately $1.42 trillion.

- Printing Money Triggers Chain Reactions: The Fed's balance sheet is expected to soar from $8.5 trillion in 2024 to $10 trillion, releasing liquidity equivalent to 10% of global GDP. From a capital flow perspective, U.S. stock valuations are already at historical highs, and there is a fear of high sentiment spreading; Bitcoin faces strong resistance at the $100,000 mark, leading some incremental funds to flow into 'low market cap, high elasticity' altcoins.

2. The Song of Ice and Fire of Altcoins

- Layout of Operators and Reappearance of History: Recently, mainstream coins have dropped by 5-10%, while altcoins have generally fallen by 20-30%, creating the illusion that 'the bear market is still ongoing.' Meanwhile, the holding volume of altcoins on exchanges has surged by 15%, allowing operators to collect chips at low prices. Looking back at the Fed's quantitative easing period in 2021, altcoins saw an average increase of 470%, but 92% of coins returned to zero after the bull market ended; this 'surge - collapse - return to zero' script seems to be playing out again.

- Three Types of Promising Altcoins: First, narrative-leading coins that align with current hot topics (such as AI+DeFi, RWA), like Fetch.ai and AGIX; second, coins heavily held by institutions, such as RNDR and LQTY, which have over 15% of their circulating supply held by firms like Grayscale and Three Arrows Capital; third, coins that achieve technological breakthroughs to solve industry pain points (like cross-chain interoperability and privacy computing), such as Polkadot and Zcash. These altcoins have certain potential for price increases and logical support.

- Nine Types of Doomed Altcoins: Those with a market cap below $10 million and a daily trading volume of less than $500,000; coins with anonymous teams, non-open-source code, and no actual products; and coins relying on false advertising such as 'hundredfold coins' and 'zero-risk wealth,' which depend on pyramid schemes, are basically doomed to return to zero. Data shows that 98% of newly added altcoins in 2024 will return to zero within 12 months, with an average lifespan of only 27 days.

3. The Fatal Contradiction Behind Macro Liquidity Expansion

- Capital Flow Cycle: June to July is a period of large-scale capital release, but by September, if inflation rebounds, the Fed may restart interest rate hikes. The capital flow roughly divides into three phases: In June, retail investors flood into altcoins, pushing prices up by 50-100%; in July, operators begin to sell at high levels, with funds flowing back to Bitcoin and gold; in August, as liquidity recedes, many altcoins will return to zero.

- Traps in Retail Investor Thinking: Many retail investors suffer from survivor bias, only seeing the myths of a few 'hundredfold coins' while ignoring the harsh reality of 98% returning to zero; there is also a valuation illusion, pricing altcoins with a bull market mindset while neglecting the importance of their actual application value. In the 2023 'AI Coin' craze, 80% of projects collapsed before their whitepapers materialized, leading to heavy losses for investors, which serves as a wake-up call for retail investors.

4. The Survival Path of Smart Investors

- Reasonable Capital Allocation: Allocate 70% of funds to Bitcoin (as an anti-inflation asset) and gold ETFs (for hedging); 20% to altcoins that have passed through the 'narrative, institutional, and technological' triple verification; the remaining 10% for high-risk, high-elasticity coins, such as MEME coins. At the same time, set stop-loss discipline; if any single altcoin loses more than 20%, decisively cut losses to avoid the risk of returning to zero.

- Strict Verification of Project Narratives: Quality projects often attract investments from top venture capital firms (like a16z, Paradigm), have launched mainnets with over 100,000 monthly active users, and established partnerships with traditional companies (like Microsoft, Amazon). Investors must remain vigilant toward projects with false advertising.

- Grasping the Peak Exit Opportunity: When the total market cap of altcoins exceeds 35% in the cryptocurrency market (currently at 22%), the top 10 altcoins on Binance's 24-hour gain list average over 50% in gains, and mainstream media reports extensively on 'altcoin wealth stories,' these are signals of reaching a peak. Investors should liquidate altcoins within 72 hours after these signals appear and switch to holding stablecoins.

During the 'altcoin bubble' of 2021, many investors lost their rationality driven by greed, ultimately ending up with nothing. Now, the Fed's printing frenzy has reignited market greed, but market rules remain unchanged; the true wealth code is held by a few clear-headed individuals. When the aunties at the vegetable market are talking about 'altcoins doubling,' it means operators are about to pull the net. As we face the 'crypto carnival' in June 2025, are investors ready to put on their 'life jackets' before the tide goes out?

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