May 2025. Bitcoin sails beyond 103,000 dollars, but this number, seemingly dizzying, may just be a warm-up. Because behind the scenes, a structural imbalance is settling in: the supply melts like snow in the sun, while institutional demand skyrockets. Some are already talking about a point of no return. Others, like Bitwise or Strategy, bet on a price explosion — up to 200,000 dollars before the end of next year. Myth or inevitable mechanism? What is certain is that the race has begun, and the challenges are colossal.
In summary
The annual supply of bitcoin is limited to 165,000 BTC in 2025.
Institutional demand already exceeds production.
The target of 200,000 $ becomes a credible target in the short term.
In 2025, the annual production of BTC is limited to 165,000 units. However, institutional players — ETFs in the lead — have already absorbed much more than this amount. Just in the United States, flows into Bitcoin ETFs exceed 6 billion dollars and continue to grow. Meanwhile, miners' reserves are decreasing, and sales are becoming increasingly rare. Liquidity is drying up, slowly but surely.
Result? Bitcoin remains stuck around 100,000 $, not for lack of interest, but because the market is digesting this new reality. And according to Hougan, as soon as this consolidation ends, the next target will mechanically be 200,000 $. Not in ten years. In 2025.
Strategy: the whale that redefines the rules of the game.
But that’s not all. Behind this supply shock is a key player, almost invisible to the general public: Strategy. Under the direction of Michael Saylor, the company is frantically accumulating BTC, to the point of owning more than 568,000 bitcoins today. This represents over 2.7% of the maximum supply, and it doesn't stop there.
In the last six months, Strategy has acquired nearly 380,000 BTC, more than double the annual production of the network. By doing so, it alone triggers an effect equivalent to a halving, creating an artificial scarcity that fuels the upward dynamics.
Analysts are categorical: if this pace continues, Strategy could soon control the bitcoin lending markets. Its influence would be such that it could indirectly fix the cost of capital in bitcoin. A first in modern monetary history. Bitcoin would then cease to be a decentralized currency in the strict sense, becoming an asset with gravity orbiting around a new center: the first BTC superpower.
The end of cycles for bitcoin? It gives way to the era of institutional hyperliquidity.
Forget the old four-year cycles, marked by dizzying highs followed by sharp crashes. This model may belong to the past. According to Hougan, the massive presence of institutional players and BTC-backed financial products has transformed the very nature of the market.
The old rules — post-halving bull run, -80% correction, stagnation — no longer apply. The continuous arrival of liquidity, long-term retention strategies, and professional management alter the patterns. Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset, no longer just a speculative product.
Add to this an unstable macroeconomic context, negative real rates, fiat currencies under pressure, and the picture becomes clear: bitcoin is becoming a rare, solid, incorruptible digital monetary standard.
Adam Back even talks about a BTC at 1 million dollars. An extreme prediction? Perhaps. But in this new paradigm, it is the fundamentals — and not speculation — that drive the game. In this scenario, the 200,000 dollars are not a marketing promise — they are the logical continuation of a systemic imbalance.
Source: www.cointribune.com
