The upcoming scenario in global markets is one of high tension and systemic risk, with a possible bond market collapse that could trigger an unprecedented financial crisis. Institutions like Moody's and the Bank for International Settlements have warned about the unsustainability of U.S. public debt and rising financing costs, while managers like Pimco are already cutting exposure to long-term bonds for sustainability reasons. Amid this storm, the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell maintains a high-rate policy to control inflation, but faces intense pressure to avoid an uncontrolled collapse.
In this context, the cryptocurrency market, although defended by figures like Robert Kiyosaki, appears extremely vulnerable. The high volatility and increasing correlation with traditional assets make Bitcoin and altcoins the first to suffer massive liquidations when confidence collapses, with losses that could exceed 90%. Kiyosaki's narrative, which bets on bitcoin as a safe haven, clashes with historical reality where cryptocurrencies fall alongside markets in crisis.
In contrast, gold stands out as the true bulwark against uncertainty. Physical demand and that from central banks, especially in China, Russia, and India, is intensifying, projecting prices that could exceed $3,500 per ounce. The precious metal consolidates as a refuge against persistent inflation, the U.S. credit downgrade, and financial volatility.
TL;DR: While Powell and the Fed struggle to stabilize the bond market without reigniting inflation, investors must prepare for a shock where gold will be the solid shield, cryptocurrencies the risky bet, and the bond market the epicenter of the storm. Only understanding this dynamic will allow for successful navigation of the impending crisis.
