🇺🇸 US 30-yr yield has reached its highest level since Q4 2023.

Last time, the 30-yr yield was this high, interest rates were at 5.5%.

Now, interest rates are at 4.5% and 30-yr yield is above 5%.

Here's why this is happening 👇

The market is expecting that inflation will rise during Q3/Q4 2025.

This will push the Fed to not act aggressively and will result in less rate cuts.

Also, the QT program could now extend further, which is basically dumping on bonds.

TLDR: Market is expecting high inflation, less rate cuts and QT continuation.