Daily K trend analysis:
Bitcoin spiked near 107,200 this morning, followed by a straight waterfall drop of about 5000 points, perfectly validating the bearish butterfly pattern resistance level mentioned in our last video. At the daily level, Bitcoin closed with a bullish candle yesterday, while today (not closed yet) is forming a bearish candle, creating a similar bearish engulfing top model. The price has now retraced to the EMA14 position, which will be key in determining market development — if tonight's U.S. session pushes the closing above this level, the top model will be invalidated; conversely, it will confirm the top pattern. In terms of the MACD indicator, bullish volume has turned to bearish volume, and a death cross has formed. Even if there is a short-term rebound, the overall situation remains in a death cross state.
Although the daily level has not completely confirmed the top, the 4-hour level has already formed clear signals: two bearish engulfing patterns were observed (the first failed, the second was effective), and the MACD has formed a death cross divergence, which is a stronger top signal than simple volume divergence. Overall, while there is a possibility of certain 'traps' at the daily level, the 4-hour level has established a bearish pattern, thus the intraday operation strategy should primarily focus on short selling, especially within the rebound range.#比特币走势分析
Previous review:
Key positions mentioned in the last video have been fully verified:
Bearish butterfly resistance at 107,200 precisely triggered a 5000-point drop
Ethereum has performed excellently at multiple key points: 2477 bullish Gartley rebound 200 points; 2550 life line broke down 300 points; 2640 reversal line failed to break; 2440 bullish bat position rebounded 200 points; 2320 large-scale bullish bat rebounded 200 points
We predicted early on that Ethereum would move into the Wyckoff accumulation C phase (oscillating downwards), and this judgment has been fully verified by the market
Resistance Level:
Resistance Level 1: 114,350 (daily bearish shark false breakout position at 1.13)
Resistance Level 2: 110,000 (psychological resistance level + previous high)
Support Level:
Support Level 1: 98,400 (0.618 reversal level + high point of wave structure + potential bullish Gartley + support-resistance swap level)
Support Level 2: 94,800 (potential bullish bat + daily 0.382 retracement level)
Market analysis:
The current market has shown clear signs of weakening; the 4-hour level has confirmed the top pattern and death cross divergence, while the daily level, although not fully confirmed, is close to the critical point. The hourly trendline and daily trendline have both been tested, and all key supports within the range have been reached, indicating that opportunities for long positions are limited. At the hourly level, after the latest down wave forms, the 0.618 retracement level (around 105,100) and 0.786 retracement level (around 106,000) will become potential short selling points, corresponding to key reversal positions of the bearish Gartley pattern.
The key to determining whether Bitcoin officially starts a bearish market is the break of the hourly trendline — once a valid break occurs, combined with moving averages turning into bearish arrangement and 4-hour death cross divergence, the bearish market will fully unfold, at which point short selling can be tracked along the EMA7. In terms of support levels, 98,400 and 94,800 form two key defense lines; the former corresponds to multiple technical indicators overlapping, while the latter is the daily 0.382 retracement level, both having strong support.
The main operational strategy is divided into three parts: $BTC
Short selling strategy within the range:
The preferred short selling position is 105,100 (0.618 retracement of the down wave + bearish Gartley)
The secondary preferred short selling position is 106,000 (0.786 retracement + bearish Gartley)
Prioritize short selling within the range rather than going long, as the 4-hour level has confirmed the top
You can choose to enter on the left side (105,100) or wait for confirmation on the right side (106,000) based on personal risk preference
Trendline breakout strategy:
Once the hourly trendline effectively breaks, it confirms the start of a bearish market
After the breakout, the EMA7 tracking short selling strategy can be adopted
Once moving averages turn into a bearish arrangement, bearish momentum will further strengthen
Target levels can be set at the two support levels of 98,400 and 94,800
Rebound strategy at support levels:
98,400 is the primary rebound position; combined with multiple technical indicators, the rebound strength may be strong
94,800 is the secondary rebound position, corresponding to the daily 0.382 retracement level
The rebound strategy should focus on short-term, without considering trend reversals
If all support levels are broken, it may enter a deeper adjustment phase
Important technical tip:
The daily MACD has formed a death cross, but the bearish engulfing pattern has not completely formed, waiting for the closing confirmation
A death cross divergence has appeared at the 4-hour level, which is a stronger top signal than volume divergence
The break of the hourly trendline will be key to determining the start of a bearish market
All key supports within the range have been tested, and opportunities for long positions are decreasing
When judging the top pattern, be wary of potential 'traps' that may appear at the daily level
Ethereum analysis supplement:
Ethereum continues to operate according to our expected Wyckoff accumulation C phase (oscillating downwards). At the daily level, the price failed to break the middle axis of the consolidation area and then began to decline. In the short term, the 2220 position (0.382 retracement from the daily low to high + 1.13 false breakdown position) will be the next important rebound point.#以太坊
In terms of long-term strategy, investors should focus on two key price levels:
Around 2000 (neckline position) - an important area to consider buying spot
Around 1900 (0.628 retracement level) - Wyckoff accumulation bottom position
The most likely trend for Ethereum is to not break the previous low, forming fluctuations near the 0.628 retracement level, and then completing a breakout of the consolidation area to start a new round of increase. In terms of short-term operations, the "buy the dip" strategy can continue, making short-term rebounds at support levels like 2220; for long-term investment, preparations should be made to buy spot in the 2000-1900 range, in preparation for the next major market event.
Summary: Bitcoin is currently forming a top pattern, and the 4-hour level has confirmed the bearish signal, but the daily level still needs to close for confirmation. In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to focus on short selling within the range, paying attention to the two rebound short selling positions of 105,100 and 106,000; while also closely observing the breakout situation of the hourly trendline. Once the breakout confirms the start of a bearish market, the EMA7 tracking short selling strategy can be adopted; the lower support levels of 98,400 and 94,800 may provide good rebound opportunities. Ethereum continues to operate according to the Wyckoff accumulation C phase, with short-term attention on the rebound opportunity at the 2220 support level, and long-term preparations to buy spot in the 2000-1900 range. Overall, the market has shown clear signs of weakening, and investors should adjust strategies to adapt to the new trend environment.
