Arthur Hayes: about BTC at $200,000 this summer, $1,000,000 by 2028 and prospects for ETH. A well-known trader and essayist in the crypto market, former CEO of #Bitmex and manager of the #Maelstrom family fund gave a comprehensive interview for #Fortune in Dubai at #Token2049.
In it, he described key goals for the #BTC movement, the prospects for #ETH, gave his view on gold and US debts, as well as his vision for the conditions for the start of altseason. And - Hayes remains ultra-bullish on the crypto market.
Key theses:
On US debt and liquidity. 'The Treasury is spending more than it shows. From January to March 2025, they actually borrowed 22% more than a year ago. This is hidden QE (quantitative easing). According to Hayes, this was the trigger for the BTC turnaround on April 9 - and the market will continue to grow. Let's remember, in early May, Hayes wrote about bond buybacks as a way to flood the economy with money without QE.
On BTC. Levels: $200,000 - already this summer, $250,000 - by the end of 2025, $1,000,000 - by 2028, the end of Trump's presidency.
Altseason. The threshold for the start of altseason is BTC breaking above $110,000 and rising to $150,000-$200,000. 'Currently, the dominance of #BTC will continue to grow, then rotation will begin.' 'This will not be 2021. Old 'dinosaurs' with low float (low free float volume - ed.), without revenue and clients - will not survive.' The next cycle will be based on new narratives, not a repeat of the past.
Ethereum vs Solana. #ETH is hated, but it remains the safest PoS network, with the largest number of developers and TVL. 'If you invest fiat now, ETH looks stronger than #SOL over the next 18-24 months.'
Gold. In Hayes' portfolio - 20% in gold (physical + gold mining companies). 'Gold could reach $10,000-$20,000. Central banks are buying the metal, and the US may revalue its reserves to devalue the dollar.'
On politics. 'From the Trump administration, we can expect 'crypto-positive' steps, but don't expect them to be a priority or immediate.'
