Let's compare the essential differences between today's '5·19' and the '5·19' of 2021:
Different cycle background: The '5·19' of 2021 occurred in the latter half of a violent bull market characterized by a frenzy of altcoins and rampant leverage, marking a natural pullback at a cyclical top. In contrast, the current situation resembles a structural adjustment within a primary upward trend.
Differences in policy impact: The crash in 2021 was directly impacted by regulatory policies in China, such as 'mining farm shutdowns + exchange bans', which forcefully interrupted the market. Today's fluctuations are more influenced by macro factors like downgrades in U.S. debt ratings and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies.
Changes in funding structure: In 2021, Bitcoin holdings were more dispersed, dominated by retail investors and small to medium-sized funds, with no ETFs and low institutional participation. Now, with the backing of ETFs and deep involvement from Wall Street, the structure of BTC holdings is more stable, the behavior of major players is more strategic, and the risk of 'irrational sell-offs' has decreased.
'This is not the kind of 'bull to bear' transition seen in 2021, but rather a pullback washout within an upward trend.'