Yesterday the market warmed up, and everyone started getting excited again. After a night of mutual slaughter between bulls and bears, everyone was left confused. After BTC broke through 107,000, it dramatically dropped, with altcoins plummeting over 5%, and ETH also smoothly declined. The market is really reversing, reversing, and reversing again, and many people are worried whether the market has shifted from bullish to bearish.
In yesterday's article (Sudden Surge, Nearly 80,000 Liquidations! Epic Short Squeeze in Bitcoin, Ethereum Soaring! The Market Makers' Clear Signals, Multiple Altcoins like F3B, MOODENG Will Soar 50-100 Times!), I reminded everyone:
Bitcoin dropped as expected. If you operated according to the levels I provided last night, you would have made a lot today.
I still insist on my previous prediction that BTC's main support is at 100,000, and it needs to break 105,800 and hold above it. Today (5.19), the market makers created some fluctuations, it's just a matter of collecting options, no need to panic, just manage your position well, still bullish, and it will eventually return to start the second wave of increases. Let's talk about the indicators I see:
In the next two weeks, there will be two consecutive conferences, one a Trump dinner and one a Bitcoin conference, and even Sun Ge is appearing in the US, signaling that something big is coming.
The magnetic field between the two people makes me a bit worried. It's said that TRUMP is actually being manipulated by Sun Ge, and I'm afraid they might meet and create some trouble. At the same time, there are several small king-level projects that should announce their coin releases one after another. There was even a wave in the last two weeks where Web2 entered the space with Meme trends, and many altcoins have risen continuously for 5-6 weeks. I'm still going to take a step back for now. I'm a bit scared.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Yesterday I also mentioned why it dropped. Currently, Bitcoin has returned to the oscillation range, with the key consolidation area near 100,000 and a close watch on the support level of 101,500. If it doesn't break below, the market remains stable; if it does, it may weaken. Today (2025.5.19) is similar to 2024.7.29, both are near previous highs but off by 2000 points, with a similar time cycle. Aside from metaphysics, four indicators including market psychology, US Treasury yields, rising gold prices, and falling US stock futures all point to a bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency market.
If you want to go long, focus on 102,000-101,000. To short, pay attention to the rebound around 104,500-105,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH's trend is weak, with a support level around 2340 in the 4-hour chart. If it breaks below the current range, it could drop to around 2100. The high leverage in Ethereum leads to liquidations during pullbacks, resulting in significant declines. In the short term, pay attention to the 20-day moving average support; if it breaks, it may drop below 2000. But I believe this is a panic sell created by market makers, and it may recover after tonight.
If altcoins rise a lot, they also fall a lot, so it's better to focus on short-term operations and take profits when possible. If you're unsure of the direction, it's better to observe more and act less.
But in the coming months, we have a plan for building positions: if altcoins approach the bottom by the end of April, we can accumulate in batches.
The liquidity window brought by the US Treasury swap, I believe, is the best altcoin opportunity for the next year. But you need to patiently wait for the oscillation, grasp the rhythm, and seize the opportunities in the June-July market. If you make a profit in this wave, it could be enough for you to live on for a year.
Future altcoins are likely to experience risk periods for price surges, making it hard to find safe opportunities like when Bitcoin was at low levels. Risk periods include Bitcoin, high US stock prices, and the variable environment created by Trump. If anyone wants to make money with altcoins in the future, they must be prepared to bear those risks, as if panning for gold on a knife's edge.
