Many new fans may not know about '519'; today marks the fourth anniversary of 519, so let’s talk about my experiences from back then.
But at that time, everyone still held fantasies about Bitcoin hitting 1 million by the end of the year. Various big players were also calling for more, and many people were still continuously bottom fishing, resulting in a series of liquidations.
I wasn’t swept away by emotions at that time; instead, I decisively went short!
On the afternoon of May 19, I went all in with 50x leverage shorting ETH at 3200U, using all my ammunition. In less than an hour, I went from 300,000U to 1,000,000U. At that moment, I felt I was about to achieve financial freedom, but I didn’t stop and instead used the profits to continue adding to my short position. After several rounds, by around 5 PM, ETH dropped to less than 1900U, with a daily drop of nearly 40%, and my account was close to 5 million U.
I have never been this crazy in my life; one afternoon, my assets skyrocketed tenfold. But the story is not over; I became bloodthirsty and continued to add positions to short, but the market suddenly changed.
ETH had a large V-shaped rebound within half an hour, and my position started to constantly give back profits. Ultimately, ETH rebounded to 2500U, and I chose to cut losses and exit. Although I still had over 1.5 million U in profits left, compared to the peak of 5 million, I still felt quite regretful.
This experience is different from others, I did make money. But the most regrettable thing is that I clearly had the chance to become famous and achieve financial freedom, but I missed the opportunity due to greed.
Since then, I have understood one principle: investment should be quick to enter and exit; take profits when you can. Opportunities arise every day, but don’t expect to eat the last bite every time.
However, the more I look at the 10% downward spike in ETH last night, the more uneasy I feel!
Some say it’s clearing leverage, but after clearing, BTC should at least be around 2600 or 2700, why is it still hovering around 2400? This can't be the guidance of an immortal, right???
Good news: $GASS has tripled!
Bad news: My girlfriend got washed out!
Just yesterday, I published an article (Is the Bitcoin narrative being replicated? Should I hold on to ETH? Reviewing the top Meme coins by market cap! Cow's early layout! How to view RATO? These four coins should not be touched!), and today, a living example came along.
GasspasCat really washed away most retail investors before starting to break through the previous highs. I entered at around 1 million market cap, and it dropped to 400,000 at its lowest. Anyone would think this market was going to cool off, my girlfriend thought so too.
He almost went in with a full position, the psychological pressure was too great, and when it hit the lowest point, he couldn’t hold on and got out. This is actually the typical reaction of most retail investors, the mindset that the big players love to capture. The reason I didn’t get washed out is two-fold:
1. I have experienced the extreme washing of $RATO and have been trained to be very resilient. As long as I feel that the narrative of this project can hold up, I'm willing to continue to endure with the big players. So even if it drops 50%, I won’t leave.
2. My capital for building positions doesn’t put much pressure on me. The early low market cap memecoin strategy is originally about small funds seeking large returns; I basically don't engage in all-in strategies. Even if this position goes to zero, it won’t have a big impact on my overall situation, and I can bear it, so I can naturally compete with the big players.
Brothers, trading coins really requires learning reverse thinking; operating against human nature is the most reasonable. If you don’t understand, go back and read my article from yesterday.
DOGE, the dogecoin, is indeed quite special.
Firstly, it is the only meme coin that uses the PoW mechanism and is among the first batch to break out. Its myth of 100 times in one round and several rounds of 10 times have long cleared the chips of the main forces, so it is actually quite clean in the market now.
Secondly, its price is also quite interesting, hovering around a few cents for a long time—this range is exactly the most common currency unit in Americans' daily lives, like the price of something bought casually at a convenience store. So it naturally resonates with the psychological anchor of '1 dollar.'
With Musk always backing it, I really have no doubt that DOGE will definitely surge to 1 dollar in the future. 1 DOGE = 1 dollar, that feeling is as beautiful and unreal as Euler's identity.
Not too far away, let's wait and see.
The key point in my trading is to be able to admit mistakes. If I misjudge a coin or buy the wrong coin, I dare to admit it.
When I led everyone to layout the Ethereum staking track, I chose $LDO because it is the leader in the staking track, and I thought it might capture more than 50% of the market share in the future.
But later I found out it wasn’t the case. The LDO team kept selling, the price movement was quite average, and there were too many holders, making it difficult for the big players to pump. So these days, as the market started to adjust, I simply swapped LDO for $EIGEN.
The reason is simple: the re-staking track is relatively light, with not so many people on board. Today, as the market rebounded, EIGEN indeed performed significantly better than LDO.
Many people get trapped in a deadlock in trading, insisting on sticking to a coin. But real trading is not like that; if you misjudge, you need to understand when to turn around and admit the mistake, and quickly look for the next opportunity.
I just looked at the market comparison between $EIGEN and $LDO and am glad I swapped early. A few days ago, as the market began to consolidate, I gave a strategy for everyone to follow me and swap LDO for EIGEN. Looking at the current performance, this move was correct.
I think LDO is too 'left' right now, and it’s not yet at the stage where one can be carefree and steady. In the early market, more aggressive and concentrated projects are more likely to seize market share (of course, the premise is that the direction needs to be correct). The issue with LDO is that there are too many buyers, making it difficult to pump, especially since the foundation keeps selling.
Looking back at EIGEN, it dropped 90% during the previous bear market, and many big holders lost millions of dollars and walked away, so now, overall, the position is much lighter.
Moreover, the highlight of EIGEN is that it supports re-staking of ETH, opening up a whole new value-added path for stakers. They can provide security guarantees and a trustworthy foundation for other protocols, further strengthening the overall security of Ethereum.
It not only injected new vitality into the crypto market but also truly brought substantial value to the entire ecosystem through various innovative features and practical applications.
I believe that in the second half of the bull market, the first shot of the re-staking track is likely to be fired. It’s worth looking forward to.
The hot tracks in this market are: AI, RWA, MEME.
Last year, AI was the leader, RWA ranked second, and MEME was at the bottom. This year, the tides have turned, and AI has dropped to third.
The technology iteration in AI is too fast, with hotspots coming one after another, from stacking computing power, parameters, and data, to multimodal and vertical applications, and now to Agents. Last year, GOAT represented Agent individuals, Virtual represented Agent platforms, and Eliza represented Agent architectures, but this year, they have basically cooled down and started to deflate.
The only one that rose against the trend was ALCH, this no-code Agent development platform, which had its chips accumulated at a low level, and with the hype, it was indeed easy to pump. It seems that many more no-code AI tools will be launched in the future, and combined with MCP-related concepts, it may very well stir up AI once again, ushering in a 'third spring.'
In recent days, on-chain activity has been relatively sparse, and PVP seems to be underperforming. Below are some meme targets that have recently gained attention and have holdings.
$Labubu
Labubu, after being quiet for half a year, has recently been rediscovered by the big players, taking off with volume. As a popular IP under Pop Mart, Labubu is really on fire. The Thai princess carries a Hermes with it, Liu Yifei only shakes hands with it on stage, Rose takes photos with it, and Lisa screams excitedly facing it. The Thai Minister of Tourism personally brought it in for tourism. The billion-dollar trendy toy empire Pop Mart behind it recently reached a new high in stock prices.
JB2wezZLdzWfnaCfHxLg193RS3Rh51ThiXxEDWQDpump
$Useless
The 'useless' meme on X concept refers to something completely useless, anti-mainstream coins. Many conspiracy groups call it the test version of Fartcoin, and Bonk whales are accumulating, while the CTO community is continuously growing.
Dz9mQ9NzkBcCsuGPFJ3r1bS4wgqKMHBPiVuniW8Mbonk
$Dpcore
Earlier, Teacher Beidou kept recommending 2M in the group, and suddenly it took off these days to 10M. The first MCP + A2A hybrid framework AI Agent ecological AI infrastructure system, quietly building + strong main projects. $dpcore is set to compete with dark for the MCP leader position, and the AI market's heat will rise again.
3qVpCnqdaJtARzE2dYuCy5pm8X2NgF5hx9q9GosPpump
$B
The BUILDon on the BNB chain has currently captured 50% of the entire market's trading volume of $USD1, receiving official support from Four.meme and has expectations of appearing on Binance alpha.
0x6bdcce4a559076e37755a78ce0c06214e59e4444
$Frogger
The Ethereum chain's Frogger, belonging to the Pepe family: a character from the Marvel series comics in 1983, is now the largest holding token of Vitalik Buterin, and the overseas community continues to build, with prices remaining relatively strong in recent days. There are expectations for interaction with Vitalik.
0xe778fd9a8d074e4a808092896b33fe3d3452c125
How to judge what stage the bull market is currently in???
BTC has risen steadily from the bottom for a month and has broken through MA120, which can be seen as the start of a bull market.
Altcoins have risen 5 times from the bottom, such as Doge and Pepe, which basically indicates that it is the mid to late stage of the bull market.
Altcoins rising to 10 times, such as platform coins and some mainstream altcoins, indicate that it has reached the later stage of the bull market.
Looking at the borrowing rates on exchanges, if they are long-term above 10%, even skyrocketing to 20% or 50%, that indicates we are currently in a phase of significant volatility in the bull market.
By 2025, the volatility in the crypto space will be quite exaggerated, with fluctuations ranging from 5% to 20%. If BTC moves by 5%, other coins might experience earthquakes of 10% or 20%.
When BTC rises to $150,000, many altcoins may not have moved much.
However, these altcoins may suddenly explode in the last month of a bull market, skyrocketing several times, but by then, you won’t be able to sell at the highest point.
When the prices rise, you hesitate to sell, and only when they drop do you cut your positions, in the end, you might only earn about double, on average.
Don’t fantasize about 10 times or 20 times; there are at most less than 5 months left in this bull market.
Some say this round is an 'eternal bull market'; I personally do not believe it.
The US is creating so many spot ETFs and options ETFs, simply put, it’s to make money and hedge risks.
BTC may ultimately become 'the most volatile US stock' and also the one with the highest profitability for institutions.
24-hour trading, able to go long or short anytime, attracting a large number of people to come and fight.
The expectations for this bull market are already full, now we just wait for the official ignition.
