Big G here for a chat! Recently, this rollercoaster ride for ADA has been thrilling—dropping to a low of 0.51 in April, peaking at 0.86 in May, and now oscillating back around 0.72. The main concern for everyone is: can we push higher next? Let’s get straight to the point!
In the short term, watch for support at 0.68; if it breaks, be cautious.
Currently, around 0.72 is a key watershed. The support level below at 0.68 is strong (a confluence of Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day moving average). If it holds, there’s a chance to rebound to the 0.78-0.81 resistance zone. However, if it drops below 0.68, it could directly plummet to 0.62 or even 0.55. Recently, the number of whale wallets has fluctuated, indicating that large holders are clearly on the sidelines.
Three positive factors are lurking.
Grayscale applies for ADA spot ETF: Although it hasn’t been approved yet, this news could excite the market. Referencing the previous BTC ETF timeline, if it really passes, breaking $1 will be a breeze.
Midnight air drop causes a stir: Founder Charles announces a distribution of privacy tokens to 37 million users, bypassing VCs and going directly to retail investors. This wave of excitement could drive prices up, especially as hype builds before the air drop.
Bitcoin bridge test successful: It can play BTC staking across chains. Although there hasn’t been a reaction in the short term, it’s a long-term positive, as BTC whale wallets can drive traffic to the ADA ecosystem.
Don't overlook negative risks.
Community backlash against the foundation: Recently, prominent figures have criticized the team for inaction, and this emotional contagion could easily lead to selling pressure. On-chain data shows increased net inflows at exchanges, indicating that some are preparing to withdraw their coins.
Death cross warning: The EMA moving averages are about to dead cross, and technical traders tend to panic sell upon seeing this signal. If 0.72 cannot hold, panic selling could occur.
Big G's summary.
In the short term, expect fluctuations between 0.68-0.78. A breakout above 0.81 is needed to confirm a restart of the upward trend. For the medium to long term, focus on two variables:
ETF approval progress: If it succeeds, it will take off directly; if it fails, it might drop back to 0.5.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts: If they really loosen policy, altcoins could collectively rebound, and hitting $1 for ADA isn’t a dream.
At this position, don't go all in; stagger your orders at 0.68 for buys, reduce positions at 0.78, and hold some for a breakout! Remember, news can be crazier than technicals, so keep an eye on Twitter updates.
Recently, I plan to position for a potential explosive coin. Doubling is quite easy, and a projected space of over 10 times is not a problem. If you want to keep up, click my avatar to follow me for free sharing!
