Market View - The correction as a catalyst?

The rally yesterday was perp-led.

We saw a sharp increase in open interest before it came off later in the session.

Could have been someone trying to grab liquidity on an illiquid Sunday — hard to know for sure. But the price action was clearly an outlier.

There are also a few macro undercurrents worth noting that could help explain the volatility:

• The U.S. is currently in the process of passing a budget increase — I believe it's a multi-step process, and one of the votes happened yesterday.

• On top of that, the U.S. credit rating was downgraded from AAA to AA, which some analysts point to as a risk-off trigger in equities.

What’s interesting is that BTC moved in sync with TradFi yesterday.

So here’s the big question:

Can Bitcoin outperform equities this week — especially if we see more weakness in TradFi?

That’s what I’m watching.

The last major run-up from $80K to $100K happened while equities were correcting. Maybe even because of it.

Then BTC paused and consolidated once equities found some relief.

If stocks sell off again, we might just see Bitcoin take the lead.

Of course, these things take a few days or even weeks to fully play out.