When will the Federal Reserve begin its interest rate cut cycle? This mainly depends on the trajectory of the U.S. economy. If the U.S. economy significantly declines by 2025, the Federal Reserve may cut rates more than twice a year to stimulate the economy. However, if the U.S. economy performs reasonably well, the Federal Reserve may only cut rates 1 to 2 times a year, or even less, in order to control inflation. As of now, the condition of the U.S. economy is quite acceptable.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 18 is a key juncture. At that time, Powell will release the dot plot, which can somewhat indicate the number of rate cuts for the year.

According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June is only 8.3%, rising to 34.2% in July, and further increasing to 51.5% in September. This indicates that the market generally expects a rate cut to be possible only in September. Moreover, even if there is a rate cut, it typically would only be by 25 basis points unless the U.S. economy faces a severe collapse, which could warrant larger actions.