Source: Bitcoin Magazine; translated by Deng Tong, Golden Finance
Bitcoin is set to soar in 2025, igniting speculation about a historic Bitcoin supercycle. After the turmoil at the beginning of the year, new momentum, a resurgence in market sentiment, and bullish indicators have analysts pondering: Are we about to witness a repeat of the 2017 Bitcoin bull market? This Bitcoin price analysis explores cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and long-term holder trends to assess the potential for explosive phases in this cryptocurrency market cycle.
Comparison of the 2025 Bitcoin cycle to previous bull markets
The recent surge in Bitcoin prices has reset expectations. According to the chart 'Bitcoin Growth Since Cycle Low', despite facing macro challenges and pullbacks, Bitcoin's trajectory closely aligns with the cycle trends of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.
Figure 1: The bullish price trend of Bitcoin in 2025 resembles that of previous cycles.
Historically, the peaks of Bitcoin market cycles typically occur about 1,100 days after a low. The current cycle has lasted about 900 days, suggesting that Bitcoin prices may still have several hundred days of potential explosive growth ahead. But can investor behavior and market mechanisms support the arrival of the 2025 Bitcoin supercycle?
Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Echoes of the 2017 Bull Market
To gauge the psychology of cryptocurrency investors, the two-year rolling MVRV-Z score provides key insights. This advanced indicator considers lost tokens, illiquid supply, the growing presence of ETFs and institutional holdings, and changes in long-term holder behavior for Bitcoin.
Last year, when Bitcoin prices reached around $73,000, the MVRV-Z score hit 3.39—a high level, but not unprecedented. A subsequent pullback mirrored the mid-cycle consolidation seen in 2017. Notably, several high-scoring peaks emerged before the final parabolic rebound in the 2017 Bitcoin cycle.
Figure 2: The MVRV-Z score resembles the trajectory of the 2017 Bitcoin bull market.
Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API for cross-cycle Bitcoin analysis reveals a high behavioral correlation of 91.5% with the 2013 double-peak cycle. Two major peaks have already occurred—one before the halving ($74,000) and one after (over $100,000)—with a potential third peak marking a historic high, possibly indicating the first occurrence of a three-peak bull market for Bitcoin, which could signify a Bitcoin supercycle.
Figure 3: Cross-cycle behavioral correlation using rolling MVRV-Z scores and price action.
The 2017 cycle showed a behavioral correlation of 58.6%, while the similarity of investor behavior in 2021 was lower, yet its correlation with Bitcoin price trends was around 75%.
Strong confidence among long-term Bitcoin holders
The wave of holding Bitcoin for over a year shows that even as prices rise, the proportion of Bitcoin that has not moved for a year or more continues to increase—something rare in a bull market, reflecting the steadfast confidence of long-term holders.
Figure 4: The rate of change in the wave of holding Bitcoin for over a year indicates market confidence in future Bitcoin prices.
Historically, a sharp increase in the rate of holding indicates a significant bottom, while a sharp decrease marks a top. Currently, this indicator is at a neutral turning point, far from a peak distribution, suggesting that long-term Bitcoin investors expect prices to rise significantly.
Bitcoin supercycle or further consolidation?
Can Bitcoin replicate the exhilarating parabolic rise of 2017? It is possible, but this cycle may carve a unique path, blending historical patterns with the dynamics of the modern cryptocurrency market.
Figure 5: Replicating the exponential growth of Bitcoin prices in 2017 may be ambitious.
We may be approaching the third major peak within this cycle—something unprecedented in Bitcoin's history. Whether this will trigger a comprehensive melt-up for the Bitcoin supercycle remains uncertain, but key indicators suggest that BTC is far from peaking. Supply is tight, long-term holders remain steadfast, and demand continues to rise, largely due to the growth of stablecoins, institutional Bitcoin investment, and ETF liquidity.
Conclusion: Can Bitcoin achieve a rebound to $150,000?
While it may be tempting to directly compare Bitcoin to the situations of 2017 or 2013, Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. As a market that is becoming increasingly mature and institutionalized, its behavior is evolving, yet the potential for explosive growth in Bitcoin still exists.
The historical cyclical correlation of Bitcoin remains high, investor behavior is healthy, and technical indicators suggest upward potential. With no signs of clear capitulation, profit-taking, or macroeconomic weakness, the momentum for rising Bitcoin prices is building. Whether this will lead to a rebound to $150,000 or even higher, the 2025 Bitcoin bull market could go down in history.
