BTC Micro Market Analysis: The Stranglehold Battle Between Bulls and Bears Under Futures and Spot Divergence
When the price first surged to 106000 and quickly retreated, a significant divergence between futures and spot emerged—spot premium rose against the trend, indicating that a large number of retail shorts were heavily shorting during the price pullback. These concentrated short positions at high levels formed a "liquidation bait," laying the groundwork for a bullish attack in subsequent price rebounds.
During the second surge, a reverse divergence was observed: the price reached a new high while the spot premium continued to decline, showing that retail bulls rushed to chase the price during the breakout. These newly added low-position long orders accumulated into a dense liquidation zone below the price, creating potential conditions for a "two-way stranglehold"—with previous short liquidation areas above and new long stop-loss areas below.
The sharp fluctuations in Monday's morning session stemmed from the energy release accumulated over the low-volatility weekend: when the technical rise triggered by institutional rebalancing broke the calm, short-term capital immediately engaged in a battle between bulls and bears. In the first pullback, aggressive futures shorts took the initiative, but due to insufficient support from the spot buying, they faced total annihilation; subsequently, when the bulls counterattacked, the chasing high-multiple long positions fell into a delicate situation—the relationship between futures and spot became a key determinant of victory or defeat.
The key observation lies in the interactivity of spot premiums: if the premium rises in tandem during a price pullback, it indicates that the spot main force is supporting at low levels, potentially forming a scenario for a "third wave breakout" to reach new highs; if the premium continues to decline with the falling price, it shows that spot buying is exhausted, and shorts may take advantage of this to complete the final harvest. The essence of this battle between bulls and bears is the directional choice conveyed by the spot main force through premium signals—in the high-frequency liquidation micro-game, the rhythm changes of futures and spot divergence are writing the code for short-term trends.
