The Market Stabilizes Below $104K as Investors Await a Breakout

On May 18, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at $103,895, with a market capitalization reaching $2.064 trillion. The trading volume over a 24-hour period was $19.865 million, with an intraday range oscillating between $102,771 and $104,002, indicating a narrow consolidation phase near historical peaks.

Bitcoin The short-term projection for bitcoin, as shown in the one-hour chart, suggests a slight increase evidenced by progressively higher lows and highs since May 16. A key resistance level is at $104,094, while support is at $102,668. The small-bodied candles at the top of the range indicate indecision in the market; however, a breakout above $104,100 with significant volume could establish a valid long entry point. Conversely, if it fails to surpass this level and the price falls below $103,000, that could signal a short-term bearish reversal. The decrease in volume in this range indicates a possible slowdown or a shift towards consolidation.

BTC/USD 1H Chart via Bitstamp on May 18, 2025.

The four-hour chart presents a consolidation outlook, showing bitcoin moving sideways between $100,764 and $104,997. Both barriers, upper and lower, have seen failed breakouts, suggesting a highly restricted market. No clear directionality is observed in trading volume, and compressed volatility supports a wait-and-see approach. If the price manages to break and stay above $105,000 with strong buying volume, the probability of a bullish continuation would increase. However, a breakdown below $102,500 could pave the way for a short-term decline to $100,000.

BTC/USD 4H Chart via Bitstamp on May 18, 2025.

From a daily perspective, bitcoin presents an upward trend, having risen from April lows near $83,000 to reach a high of $105,706. Despite this significant advance, the current price behavior reflects a healthy sideways movement, commonly observed near cycle peaks. The volume profile indicates a decrease in recent activity, which may anticipate a new breakout or indicate fatigue among buyers. A close above $105,706 with considerable volume would corroborate bullish strength, while a drop below $102,000 accompanied by an increase in volume could induce a deeper pullback toward the $98,000 to $100,000 range.

BTC/USD 1D Chart via Bitstamp on May 18, 2025.

When examining technical indicators, oscillators provide diverse signals. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 68, the stochastic oscillator at 82, and the commodity channel index (CCI) at 67, all indicating neutral momentum. Similarly, the average directional index (ADX) and the Awesome oscillator also show a neutral stance. However, the momentum indicator and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) both indicate sell signals, suggesting short-term vulnerability within a broader upward trend structure.

Moving averages underscore the dominant bullish trend. All exponential moving averages (EMAs) and simple moving averages (SMAs) of 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 periods are in buy territory. For example, the 10-period exponential moving average is at $102,699, while the 200-period simple moving average is at $92,624, both significantly below current levels. This setup supports a lean towards continued movement, provided key resistance levels are firmly surpassed.

Bullish Verdict:

Bitcoin remains in a structurally bullish phase supported by multiple strong buy signals across all major moving averages and a solid price base near all-time highs. Although consolidation is evident across various timeframes, any breakout above $105,700 with robust volume will likely confirm the continuation of the existing bullish trend, favoring long positions.

Bearish Verdict:

Despite the notable rise of bitcoin from its lows in April, warning signs are beginning to emerge in the form of mixed oscillator messages and decreasing volume near resistance. If the price fails to exceed $105,000 and drops below $102,000 with negative momentum, it could initiate a more pronounced correction towards the support of $98,000 to $100,000, increasing the viability of short positions.

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