Original title: Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin's route to $200,000, holding gold and why 'hated' Ethereum is due for a comeback
Original source: Fortune
Original translation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
Arthur Hayes is an iconic figure in Bitcoin's early days, having co-founded the offshore trading platform BitMEX in 2014, and later faced legal issues for violating U.S. regulations. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish adequate anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation and paid fines, but had received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.
Currently, Hayes focuses on managing the family fund Maelstrom, while still being a highly influential figure in the crypto asset space. (Fortune) special contributor Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market—including predictions that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and may exceed $1 million by 2028.
In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and altcoin markets and explained why he chose to allocate 20% of his assets to gold. Below is the entire interview, content has been condensed and edited.
Q1: Regarding the real deficit in the U.S.
Anna: Why do you refer to the recent borrowing operations of the U.S. Treasury as a 'smoke and mirrors' tactic?
Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been depleting its 'checking account' (Treasury General Account, TGA) and using 'extraordinary measures' (underfunded government programs) to avoid the borrowing limit, causing TGA to drop from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means $300 billion of spending was not achieved through new debt, the actual borrowing scale far exceeds official data. This is quite confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, theoretically, the U.S. government cannot net increase borrowing, but they are maintaining spending without exceeding the limit through various accounting tricks. From January to March 2025, the Treasury's borrowing scale is 22% higher than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually widening.
Q2: Regarding market liquidity
Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Arthur Hayes: I believe that the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much larger than the publicly stated figures, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to provide maximum leverage for this debt through the banking system. The ultimate result will be an overflow of global dollar liquidity, as the U.S. government is increasing spending. In short, this is the essence of repurchase operations, and it is also why I believe it will enhance market liquidity. Based on this, I judge that Bitcoin has bottomed on April 9, and as the government continues to borrow and Bessent ensures low-cost financing, Bitcoin's price will continue to rise significantly.
Q3: Regarding altcoin season
Anna: So, to what level does Bitcoin need to rise to trigger the altcoin season? What are the key factors that will initiate the altcoin season?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise to the $150,000 - $200,000 range. I expect this to happen in the summer or early third quarter of this year, after which funds will begin to rotate into various altcoins.
Q4: Regarding bullish market increase expectations
Anna: Do you think the next altcoin season will see a crazy super cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only have a slight rebound?
Arthur Hayes: It is unlikely that we will see a repeat of the 2021 phenomenon where all coins surged 100 times. New narrative hotspots will emerge in the market, and certain coins may skyrocket, but there is a reason why those long-stagnant 'dinosaur coins' in your portfolio are not increasing. Many projects are overvalued, have low circulation, and lack real users and revenue, relying solely on exchange listings for speculation; their prices have already dropped by 95%, and I do not believe they will perform well in the next cycle.
Q5: Regarding personal income expectations
Anna: What is your expected rate of return in this market cycle? What are the typical target price and return rate you set?
Arthur Hayes: At least it needs to outperform Bitcoin's increase. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying asset must be able to exceed Bitcoin's returns.
Q6: Regarding Trump
Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's crypto policy?
Arthur Hayes: His team should introduce policies favorable to crypto, but that does not mean that the specific projects you hold will necessarily appreciate, nor does it mean that policies will progress according to your expected timeline. The current market expectations are simply too high; some people even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But do not forget that Trump is a politician, and he has many higher-priority matters to handle; everyone needs to be patient.
Q7: Regarding gold
Anna: In the context of increasing market uncertainty, we have seen a significant rise in gold. Have you allocated any gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?
Arthur Hayes: I hold gold long-term, with physical gold bars stored in a vault, while also holding a large number of gold mining stocks—considering the soaring gold prices, these assets are still undervalued. I believe gold has a lot of upside potential, as central banks are continuing to accumulate. More importantly, I expect the U.S. to significantly revalue its gold reserve value, achieving debt dilution through the devaluation of the dollar against gold. At the end of this market cycle, gold prices may reach $10,000 to $20,000. Gold accounts for about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.
Q8: Regarding ETH vs SOL
Anna: That ratio is quite high! There are many debates in the market about ETH and SOL; which one do you favor more?
Arthur Hayes: I think ETH has more upside potential, even though it is currently being questioned—everyone thinks it is useless, and the development team keeps making mistakes, but the reality is that it still maintains the highest on-chain total value locked (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the safest PoS blockchain. Indeed, despite its price performance since 2020 being less than ideal. SOL has clearly performed well, but if I were to allocate new fiat now, I believe ETH's increase may surpass SOL's in the bullish market over the next 18-24 months.
Q9: Regarding the $1 million BTC
Anna: You previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million; when do you think this target will be achieved?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the end of President Trump's term, which is by the end of 2028.
Q10: Regarding annual trend expectations
Anna: How do you expect the specific trends of the crypto market this year?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise, possibly approaching $200,000 in this wave of increase. After that, altcoin season will arrive, and we will see some interesting phenomena. By the end of the year, Bitcoin's target price is about $250,000.
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