BTC experienced a fluctuating pattern resembling a 'door' after rising to 106,000, driven by a game of short-term high-leverage long and short positions liquidating each other:
During the first round of decline, the spot premium rose, indicating that shorts were rushing in, providing upward liquidation momentum for the price;
Subsequently, as the price rose again, the premium fell, indicating that longs were entering the market, which in turn created downward liquidation momentum for the price.
Volatility intensified on Monday morning, as the calm accumulated over the weekend was abruptly broken by sudden spot buying, triggering sharp fluctuations. This was followed by high-leverage shorts being liquidated, and then high-leverage longs entering the market, leading to a standoff in the game.
The key is to watch the direction of the spot premium:
If the premium rises again when the price pulls back, there is still room for a new high;
If the premium declines along with the price, then the shorts may ultimately prevail.
In the end, it comes down to which side the spot leaders ultimately stand on.
