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#CryptoCPIWatch US CPI Report: Inflation Cooling or Persistent Pressure? What It Means for Markets and Crypto Key Takeaways: February CPI inflation expected at 2.9% YoY, down from 3.0% in January. Core CPI forecasted at 3.2%, slightly easing from 3.3% previously. US Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook may shift based on CPI data. Crypto markets, stocks, and US dollar fluctuations depend on inflation trends. US Inflation Data Expected to Show Cooling, But Risks Remain The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, offering a critical insight into inflation trends. Market analysts anticipate a slight drop in inflation, which could influence Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The headline CPI inflation rate is expected to come in at 2.9% year-over-year (YoY), down from 3.0% in January, marking the first dual decline in core and headline inflation since July 2024. The core CPI inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, is projected to fall to 3.2% from 3.3%. Monthly inflation projections: Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM Core CPI: +0.3% MoM Analysts at TD Securities predict a broad-based deceleration in inflation, noting that housing costs and goods prices may decline, contributing to an easing trend. How the CPI Data Could Affect the Federal Reserve's Rate Decision The Federal Reserve has signaled caution on rate cuts, with Chair Jerome Powell stating last week that economic conditions remain "solid" but inflation must cool further before monetary easing is considered. Markets have already priced in 85 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2025, but persistent inflation could force the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. On the flip side, a softer inflation print could solidify expectations of rate cuts starting in June or July. Impact scenarios: Lower-than-expected CPI (below 2.9%) → Fed rate cuts may be accelerated, USD weakens, risk assets rally (crypto, stocks). Higher-than-expected CPI (above 3.0%) → Fed maintains restrictive policy, USD.
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