Move of Trend: Based on the ascending channel pattern visible on the chart, the price has recently bounced off the lower trendline. This suggests a potential upward move towards the upper trendline of the channel. However, the price is currently below the 50-period moving average (not explicitly shown but implied by standard technical analysis), which could act as dynamic resistance. A break above this moving average would strengthen the bullish outlook. Conversely, if the price fails to hold above the lower trendline, a bearish move towards lower support levels could be expected.
* Next Move According to SMC & Psychological Factors:
* Smart Money Concepts (SMC): To apply SMC, we'd look for indications of institutional order flow. Areas of interest would be potential order blocks or fair value gaps (FVGs) that price might revisit. Without explicit labeling of these on the chart, we can speculate that the recent bounce off the lower channel line might coincide with an area where "smart money" has placed buy orders. A break below recent lows could indicate a failure of this support and a potential shift in institutional sentiment.
* Psychological Factors: The price level of $100,000 is a significant psychological barrier. The market's reaction around this level can be crucial. Having broken above it and currently trading above, it suggests some bullish momentum. However, traders might be hesitant as the price approaches the previous high around $105,800, leading to potential profit-taking. The overall bullish trend since early May 2025 might encourage further buying on dips.
* Entries: Potential long entries could be considered on a clear break and retest of the 50-period moving average or near the lower trendline of the ascending channel, with a stop-loss below the recent swing low.
* Suggested Trade Side: Given the current bounce off the lower trendline of the ascending channel and the overall upward momentum, a long (buy) position could be considered. However, this should be done with caution and proper risk management, considering the resistance posed by the potential 50-period moving average and the psychological level of $105,800.
* Swing Scenario of the Market: The market is currently exhibiting a swing within an apparent ascending channel.
* Bullish Swing: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, indicative of an uptrend. The recent bounce from the lower channel line represents a continuation of this bullish swing.
* Potential Bearish Swing: If the price fails to break above the resistance around $105,800 or breaks down below the lower trendline of the channel, a bearish swing with lower highs and lower lows could materialize.
* Complexity of the Signal: The signal presented by this chart is moderately complex.
* Clear Bullish Sign: The ascending channel provides a relatively straightforward bullish signal, suggesting that buyers are stepping in at higher lows.
* Countering Bearish Sign: However, the price being below a potential short-term moving average introduces some uncertainty.
* Need for Confluence: A trader would ideally look for confluence with other indicators (like RSI, MACD, or volume analysis, which are not fully visible) to increase the confidence in the direction of the next move. The psychological levels and potential SMC points add another layer of complexity that requires careful consideration. A decisive break of either the channel boundaries or the $105,800 resistance would offer a clearer, less complex signal.
