The recent financial market resembles the calm before the storm. The wave of excitement stirred by Trump’s policies sweeps across the globe, with US stocks rising sharply one after another, and the cryptocurrency market also in turmoil. Retail investors are immersed in the frenzy of chasing rises, unaware that the sickle of market makers has quietly been raised. In this magical game, how do we see the truth and protect our principal?
1. The capital frenzy under the Trump effect: The harvesting logic behind the prosperity
❶ The appearance and essence of wealth creation policies
Stock market frenzy: After Trump announced the tax cut plan, the Dow soared 5% in one week, technology stocks rose over 10%, and retail investors flocked in;
Cryptocurrency excitement: The Trump family's crypto fund was established with great fanfare, a certain MEME coin (TRUMP) surged 300% in a week, and endorsements from major figures like Sun Yuchen triggered a following trend.
Truth:
Institutions offload at high positions due to favorable policies, with retail investors net buying $200 billion in US stocks in Q3 2024, while institutions net sold $150 billion during the same period;
The 'celebrity effect' in the crypto market is essentially a tool for market makers to unload, with the top 10 addresses holding 80% of the TRUMP coin tokens, selling more than 50% of the circulating volume after raising the price.
❷ The harvesting techniques of marketing masters
Hunger Games: Trump dinner tickets are speculated to $200,000 each, the first 20 'private communication' slots sold for $5 million, essentially a 'wealth anxiety tax';
Crypto sickle: The Trump fund invested by Sun Yuchen promises a 'minimum 3x return', but actually harvests retail investors through high-leverage contracts, with a liquidation rate as high as 75%.
2. Technical warnings: Risks are accumulating behind the frenzy
❶ US Stocks: Weekly level divergence warning
Crisis of form: The S&P 500 index hit a historic high, but the MACD red bars continue to shorten, forming a 'new price high + declining indicators' divergence;
Gap-filling law: The CME Bitcoin futures gap at $97,000 (leftover from 2023), historical data shows that 90% of gap openings will be filled within 3 months.
❷ Bitcoin: The long and short game is entering a fever pitch
Daily level reversal signal:
High points gradually lower (108,000→105,000→103,000 USD), clear signs of short control;
MACD death cross + shrinking volume, a typical 'volume-price divergence' peak signal.
Hourly level trap for inducing long positions:
1-hour MACD golden cross triggers a short-term rebound, but the upper resistance at $104,300 is a strong 200-day moving average;
The main force collects long positions through 'spike up + quick drop', with over $200 million in liquidations in the last 3 days, 80% of which are long positions.
3. Retail survival guide: Rules for staying awake in the frenzy
❶ Position management: Always leave yourself an escape route
Cash is king: Convert 50% of assets to USDT / USD to avoid 'full position frenzy';
Contract no-go zone: Give up high leverage (>5x), use 1% of funds for trial and error, set stop-loss below key support levels (e.g., BTC $95,000).
❷ Currency selection: Avoid the 'celebrity effect' trap
Blacklist:
Celebrity-backed coins (TRUMP, BIDEN, etc. MEME coins) have a 90% chance of going to zero;
Altcoins with a daily increase of over 50% are mostly manipulated by market makers.
Safe zone:
Mainstream coins (BTC, ETH), accounting for 60%, have strong resilience;
Compliance tokens (like Ripple, which has received partial recognition from the SEC) have low policy risk.
❸ Operation strategy: Counter-intuitive thinking against human weaknesses
No chasing the rise rule:
If US stocks / Bitcoin daily rise >3%, firmly do not chase, wait for a correction;
Case: In 2024, a retail investor chased the TRUMP coin when it surged 200%, only to plummet 70% and face liquidation the next day.
Bottom-fishing discipline:
Bitcoin falls below $95,000 (200-day moving average), accumulate in batches (20% at $95,000, 20% at $92,000);
Reduce positions at $100,000, betting on a short-term rebound.
4. Long-term outlook: Where are the opportunities after the storm?
❶ Short-term (1-3 months): The risk of correction outweighs the opportunity
Resistance levels: Bitcoin $108,000, S&P 500 index 5800 points;
Support levels: Bitcoin $92,000, S&P 500 index 5200 points;
Strategy: Stay in cash or light positions (≤30%), waiting for the trend to clarify.
❷ Mid-term (6-12 months): Structural opportunities in the bull-bear transition
Cryptocurrency:
Compliance tracks (ETF, CBDC) may become the new main line;
If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $120,000.
Traditional assets:
Gold (anti-inflation) and energy stocks (Middle East tensions) may outperform the market.
❸ Long-term (2-5 years): Technological revolution spawns a new wave of wealth
Focus areas:
Artificial intelligence (computing power coins like RTX);
Decentralized finance (DeFi 2.0 protocols);
Quantum computing (anti-quantum cryptocurrencies).
Conclusion: Staying clear-headed in a bubble is more important than making money
The financial market has always been 'a few people making money off the majority', when everyone is talking about 'getting rich', it is often the moment of highest risk. Trump's marketing tactics, institutional games, and the sickle of stock manipulators have woven this seemingly prosperous dream. As retail investors, we cannot change the market, but we can choose - not to be dancers in the frenzy, but to be wise before the storm.
Remember: Wealth is not gained by 'chasing highs and killing lows', but comes from respect for cycles, control of risks, and maintaining inner strength amidst the noise. When the tide goes out, you will find that the real opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared.
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