The real danger is not during the crash, but in the crazy moments when everyone thinks 'it will never drop'. When the market is completely ignited by greed, and reason is crushed into dust by euphoria, the countdown to collapse has quietly begun. The following three 'toxic signals' are the last gasps before the end of a bull market -

One, the era of everyone being a stock god: the countdown to death behind showing off trading skills

❶ Phenomenal magical scene

  • Previously silent programmers start showcasing 'hundredfold contract trades', even the aunties dancing in the square are sharing USDT wallet screenshots on social media;

  • A certain MEME coin community sees an average of over 100,000 new 'profit showcases' daily, and retail investors use photo editing software to fake 'millions in assets' to compete with each other.

❷ The fatal scythe of big players

  • When retail investors are obsessed with 'showing off honors', big players are tracking 'active retail addresses' through big data;

  • At the top of the bull market in 2024, a certain big player accurately detonates 80% of active addresses' contract positions based on community showcasing data, earning over $500 million in a single day.

Two, the ALL IN cult spreads: when the word 'risk' disappears from the dictionary.

❶ Collective cognitive bias

  • In the community, 'all-in and getting rich' has become politically correct, and any suggestion of 'diversifying positions' will be ridiculed as 'lacking vision';

  • Data shows that at the bull market peak, retail investors' average position reached 95%, with 60% using leverage of more than 5 times, setting a historic extreme.

❷ Liquidity black hole trap

  • The ALL IN of the masses leads to market liquidity drying up, allowing big players to breach key price levels with just 1% of their funds;

  • Before the collapse of LUNA in 2023, 92% of retail positions were concentrated in LUNA/UST. When big players sold 0.5% of their chips, it triggered a chain reaction of liquidations that led to system collapse.

Three, the moment of short extinction: when the market can't accommodate even a trace of doubt.

❶ Public opinion violence purges dissent

  • Any bearish comments will be attacked as 'dead short dogs' or 'sour grapes', and may even receive a 'liquidation curse';

  • A certain KOL was banned from the platform after warning about 'BTC overbought risk', as the comment section was overtaken by 'bulls'.

❷ The death flag of long-short imbalance

  • The perpetual contract long-short ratio breaks 5:1, and the funding rate skyrockets to 0.5% (normal range is 0-0.05%);

  • Historical law: When the market can't accommodate even a decent short, only 3-7 days remain until a crash.

Four, the escape guide from the bull market peak: how to stay clear-headed when everyone goes mad?

❶ Anti-consensus operation checklist

  • Position management: When more than 3 people around you are showing their positions, immediately reduce your position by 50%;

  • Sentiment indicator: Close 90% of communities, keeping only 1 'short monitoring group' (such as a prominent short-seller on Twitter);

  • Ultimate stop-loss: If total funds retract by 8% from the peak, liquidate unconditionally (regardless of bull or bear market).

❷ On-chain data life-saving signal

  • Whale movements: Monitor 'whale address balance changes' using Nansen. If a whale transfers out more than 100,000 BTC/ETH in a single day, exit decisively;

  • Exchange traffic: When USDT inflow to exchanges surges by 200%, and Bitcoin premium rate > 15%, it indicates that big players are preparing to dump.

❸ Survival rules of reverse thinking

  • Short protection mechanism: Use 1% of funds to open small short positions, not for profit, but to maintain respect for the market;

  • Cash is king belief: In the later stage of a bull market, convert 50% of assets to USDT, and daily recite 'cash is not trash, it is the bullet for the future'.

Five, history always rhymes: Those years when crazy retail investors were buried.

Time crazy signal collapse consequences: In 2017, the whole nation did ICO, air coins skyrocketed a hundredfold. BTC plummeted from $20,000 to $3,000. In 2021, Musk announced Dogecoin, retail investors all-in DOGE, which fell from $0.73 to $0.05. In 2023, LUNA believers insisted 'UST will always be $1', LUNA went from $119 to zero.


At each bull market peak, it is a collective exhibition of 'human weaknesses': greed, arrogance, and blind conformity. The true survivors are always those who remain sober amidst the revelry and leave the bubble ahead of time - the 'counter-current' participants.

Conclusion: When the whole world is dancing, remember to take your glass away in advance.

The brutal truth of the crypto world is: a bull market is not an ATM for retail investors, but a factory for big players to harvest retail investors. When you see older folks discussing 'financial freedom in the crypto world', and when those around you are mocking 'conservatives', always remember: the most succulent fish always appears just as the banquet is about to end.


Open an account now to see if your position is in the 'danger zone'. Listen to your inner voice - are you being driven by greed to 'make one last profit', or is reason telling you 'it's time to leave'?
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