Arthur Hayes predicts an unstoppable surge for bitcoin as collapsing U.S. treasuries and capital repatriation fuel a global flight into BTC, targeting $1 million.
Arthur Hayes: Capital Repatriation and Treasury Collapse Will Push Bitcoin to $1 Million
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of crypto exchange Bitmex, shared his latest macroeconomic outlook in a blog post on May 14, asserting that the United States is moving toward capital controls as a more politically viable alternative to tariffs. He warned that continued reliance on foreign capital and fiscal printing will eventually force policymakers to enact policies that curb foreign investment in U.S. financial markets.
Hayes explained that a 2% tax on foreign holdings of U.S. assets—totaling $33 trillion—would be easier to enforce and more effective than tariffs. He argued this levy could offset income taxes for 90% of Americans. As foreign capital retreats, he expects the Federal Reserve to step in with stimulus to support faltering markets. This will set the stage for a dramatic repricing of alternative assets, especially BTC. The Maelstrom chief investment officer stated:
Bitcoin will be the best performing asset during this period of global monetary transformation.
He argued that capital controls would make it harder for investors to freely allocate capital globally, but one vehicle will remain accessible. “As long as there is the internet, you will be able to sell fiat for bitcoin,” he said.
The Bitmex co-founder emphasized BTC’s utility in a world of fragmented capital markets, asserting: “Bitcoin is the perfect and only lifeboat for global capital that must leave America and elsewhere.” He predicted that geopolitical shifts and domestic monetary policies will drive the price of the cryptocurrency, stating:
Foreign capital repatriation and the devaluation of the gargantuan stock of U.S. treasuries will be the two catalysts that will power bitcoin to $1 million sometime between now and 2028.
“I say 2028, because that is when the next U.S. presidential election occurs and who knows what type of politician will win and what policies they will enact,” he clarified. Calling this a window of opportunity, he stressed: “The time is now to make hay while the sun king takes a shine to bitcoin.” Still, Hayes acknowledged volatility ahead, cautioning: “Just because I believe bitcoin is going to $1 million, doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities to take tactical short positions.”
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