Bitcoin is currently trading at $102,980, with a 24-hour trading volume of $23.32 billion and a market capitalization of $2.04 trillion, with an intraday fluctuation range of 102,801 ~ 104,263.
After a strong surge, Bitcoin has clearly entered a high-level consolidation phase. Although the long cycle structure is slightly bullish, multiple bearish signals are beginning to emerge in the short term.
1. Short Cycle: Inducement risk is rising
On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin is in a short-term downtrend, continuously declining and testing the support at 102,668. During the rebound, the trading volume did not keep up, indicating weak buying pressure.
Resistance above: 103,800 - 104,000 (bearish engulfing pattern appears)
If the rebound volume remains weak, this is a tactical short point
If 102,600 holds and is accompanied by volume, short-term scalping longs can participate
2. Medium Cycle: Long and short are at a critical point, waiting for direction choice
On the 4-hour chart, after Bitcoin surged to 105,706, it quickly fell back, currently showing a structure of synchronous decline in highs and lows, with bearish strength increasing.
Trading volume is significantly expanding downwards, increasing selling pressure
Key resistance: 104,500
Key support: 100,500 ~ 100,800
Only by breaking through 104,500 and stabilizing can we hope to restart the upward attack; otherwise, Bitcoin risks continuing to test the $10,000 level.
3. Long Cycle: The trend remains healthy but is starting to show fatigue
From the daily chart, since the end of April, Bitcoin has risen from 82,784 to 105,706, and the overall trend remains strongly bullish.
However, typical 'trend change signals' have appeared at high levels:
The K-line body is getting smaller, and the upper shadow is lengthening → Bulls are hesitant
High-level trading volume is shrinking → Follow-up funds are significantly reduced
Key support level below: 96,000 ~ 98,000, as long as this level holds, the structure remains healthy; conversely, if it breaks down with volume, be cautious of a large-scale structural reversal.
4. Indicator Signal: Long and short are at a standstill
All oscillation indicators are neutral to bearish, indicating a lack of clear market direction:
Most indicators such as RSI, CCI, and ADX show no obvious trend direction
MACD and momentum indicators lean towards sell signals
Meanwhile, the EMA moving average system remains strong:
10/20/30/50/100/200-period EMA all support the upward trend
Only the 10-period SMA has a death cross, indicating short-term pressure
In short: The long-term bullish trend is still intact, but the short-term trend is weak. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 100,000 mark, it may trigger an accelerated pullback.
Long and short summary:
Bull perspective:
As long as it holds the support range of 100,500 ~ 102,600 and breaks through 105,700 with volume, this round of increase is likely to continue, even reaching new highs.
Bear perspective:
If Bitcoin continuously fails to hold the resistance zone of 104,500 - 105,700 and drops below 100,000, this upward structure may fail, and a corrective trend will officially start.
At this stage, it is not advisable to chase the rise, be wary of short-term inducements
Above 105,700 has not been broken, proceed with caution when participating in long positions
The key psychological level below is 100,000; if broken, it is recommended to clear positions for risk avoidance.
Scalping may consider short-term long bets at 102,600, with tight stop-losses
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