$BTC Evening Perspective:
The current market is at a stage where bulls say bears are foolish, and bears say bulls are reckless. Bullish mindset: Bulls believe that this is just a normal pullback, offering opportunities for those who haven't entered yet or want to increase their positions. Bearish mindset: prolonged sideways movements must lead to a decline; if we can't break past the previous high soon, a drop is inevitable. Classmates, are you bullish or bearish?
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Let's look at the chart: In the hourly chart of Bitcoin, the Fibonacci retracement shows that the 1:1 retracement target is at 99794. If the 61.8% level at 101768 cannot hold, it's highly likely we'll go back to 99794.
A pullback to 99794 will see some rebound, but if that rebound cannot break through the 61.8% level, we will look for support at the 1.618 level, which is around 96600, hoping to follow this script.
If Bitcoin breaks out with volume above 103531, we should follow the trend and take long positions for a rebound. If it breaks down with volume below 102912 and fails to recover, we should watch for short positions. Pay attention to volume changes and set stop losses.
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If Bitcoin stabilizes above 103067 on the hourly chart, we can look upwards towards 103657-104415, but it seems like it won't go up easily.
On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 102353, we will look down towards 101513-100718.
Continuing with the chart: Bitcoin on the 4-hour chart has tested the EMA 50-day moving average multiple times and has received support each time for a rebound.
Now it is testing the EMA 50-day moving average again; will it hold this time? If it doesn't, it will go down directly, and the most effective support below is the EMA 200-day moving average. Be mindful of the risks; Saturday will either be calm or stormy; meeting adjourned.