The truth about the peak of a bull market can be summed up in one sentence:
When even the lady selling pancakes downstairs starts flaunting her stock account, the market is just three days away from crashing!
Why? Because when the last batch of investors rushes into the market, there are no new buyers left!
All the old investors are sharpening their knives, ready to harvest, while the new investors think they are stock gods—if they don't run away now, are they waiting to be trapped at the mountain top, drinking the north wind?
The real peak of a bull market is all collective illusion!
Everyone around you is boasting that 'this time is different,' even the square dance ladies dare to tell you, 'Value investing requires long-term holding'; the bears are being criticized to a pulp, and all bearish articles are being trampled into the comment section's cesspool. This is not the peak of a bull market; it's clearly the countdown for collective picking up the pieces!
But you have to thank those shouting bears!
They are like the 'alarm bells' in the market—if even the bears are being silenced by criticism, it means the market has gone crazy beyond salvation! Instead, those who are still bearish are the 'fuel tanks' for future trends: once their short positions get blown up, the bottom-fishing army can smash the stock price into new pits, and the bloody chips of the old investors will be handed over to the new ones!
The same applies to the bottom of a bear market:
When the last batch of dead bulls is crying and 'cutting losses to save their lives,' the market has truly bottomed out. Because at this moment, even the most stubborn optimists have surrendered, leaving only gold scattered everywhere!
How to judge when the market is about to change? Remember these three perverse signals!
1. The Law of Universal Madness: If even your second uncle tells you, 'This time stocks will soar to the sky,' hurry up and liquidate!
2. Position Black Hole Detection: When you open your trading software and find everyone flaunting full position screenshots, that's the signal for the main force to retreat!
3. The Curse of Consensus: If the opinions across the internet are highly unified (like 'this time is different'), it means the big players are ready with their sickles!
Let me say a heart-wrenching truth:
The peak of a bull market is never identified by technical indicators breaking down, but by the collective climax of human nature! Those who criticize the bears as 'dead bears' are digging their own graves; meanwhile, those quietly hoarding cash are waiting to pick up the pieces when you all cry and sell!
Remember: the most dangerous thing in a bull market is not the sharp decline, but the collective numbness of the revelry!
You taste it, you savor it!
