Combining the latest news and the daily jargon of crypto veterans, I analyzed the impact of the tariff tug-of-war between Trump and India on our crypto market:
One, Short-term: Don’t rush to buy the dip, be careful of sharp drops
Expectations were dashed, whales dumped
The market originally thought that the US and India could sign an agreement by the end of the month, but Trump's statement of "no rush" directly increased the suspense. Such verbal operations are the most frustrating; large funds will definitely run for safety first. BTC may test the support level of $82,000 again, and altcoins are likely to bleed heavily.
The tariff bomb has not been defused properly
Although India has proactively knelt down and said zero tariffs on American goods, Trump still holds the switch for a 26% retaliatory tariff. It's like the few seconds before an exchange pulls the plug; you never know when the whale will dump, and on-chain data already shows large wallets secretly selling off.
Two, Mid-term: Miners and anti-inflation narratives have opportunities
Miners may pick up bargains
If India really offers tax exemptions for mining machines, plus the local electricity costs only 0.4 yuan per kilowatt-hour, Bitmain has already sent 300 million dollars worth of new mining machines to India. However, Trump is not allowing Apple to set up factories in India, which may hinder power infrastructure. Old mining machines are now close to shutdown prices; it might be a good opportunity to pick up cheap second-hand equipment.
The inflation script may repeat
If the US and India manage to agree on zero tariffs to suppress US inflation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, BTC may rebound alongside US stocks. However, in the long run, Trump's global tax increases will eventually push up raw material prices, and at that time, the story of "digital gold" can be hyped again, potentially leading to a violent rebound when the bad news is fully priced in.
Three, On-chain Mystical Signals
Stablecoins are quietly increasing supply
USDT has printed over $2.1 billion in the past week, indicating that some veterans are ready. As long as solid good news comes out from the US-India talks, this batch of funds may surge to pump the market.
Miner surrender index is skyrocketing
Currently, the overall network computing power is a bit stretched. If the Indian mining farms cannot keep up with the electricity supply, it is estimated that another batch of small miners will go under. The difficulty adjustment for Bitcoin may lead to short-term fluctuations in computing power, affecting prices.
Four, Operating Guidelines
Spot traders: Focus on coins like LPT and HONEY that are related to the concept of manufacturing transfer; zero tariffs in India may benefit these.
Contract traders: Take a 10% position to buy straddle options for the end of June, betting on volatility before and after the Federal Reserve meeting. The news is too chaotic lately; don’t easily open high-leverage positions.
Miners: Keep an eye on India's customs policies. If mining machines are truly tax-exempt, hurry to upgrade. Electricity in India is now cheaper than in Sichuan; sell old machines like the S19 as soon as possible.
In summary, this tariff game is a wrestling match between US dollar hegemony and a multipolar world. The crypto market, as the most sensitive market globally, will definitely be volatile. Save your bullets, don’t let the news lead you by the nose; only when a black swan appears can you qualify to pick up bloody chips.
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