If I want to increase my position in $ETH during the first half of a bull market, setting aside those irrelevant factors, I only need to focus on the following two core points:
1. Level expansion, the current E/B exchange rate, the MACD at the daily level has risen above the zero line, but the 3-day and weekly MACDs are still below the zero line. I need to see:
1) The daily level MACD retraces to the zero line without breaking;
2) The 3-day and weekly levels rise above the zero line, achieving level expansion;
3) K first retraces without breaking the previous low.
If these technical conditions are met, then consider other factors, such as whether the market narrative supports further increases.
Key Logic
In simple terms, if the market experiences a pullback, the decline in $ETH may exceed that of $BTC, which is a normal phenomenon. However, $ETH cannot drop endlessly like ordinary altcoins; it needs to show its position and resilience as the “second brother.” Only in this way can it establish a bullish consensus in the market and provide confidence for increasing positions.
