As of May 17, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies worldwide stabilized at $3.49 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume increasing by 2.81% to $71.55 billion, indicating a moderate level of market activity. Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a high-level consolidation phase after breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000, currently reported at $102,975, with an intraday fluctuation range of $101,430-$104,180. The MACD indicator shows green bars indicating weakened short-term momentum, but the 50-day moving average ($102,000) provides strong support. Ethereum (ETH) has retreated from a high of $2,584 to $2,498, with the 4-hour RSI falling from the overbought zone to 58.91, indicating a need for technical adjustment.
2. Bitcoin: The game between institutional support and upward pressure
Key support and resistance: The current price is at the midpoint of the rising channel, with the range of $101,000-$102,000 being the core defense line for bulls, supported by both trendline support and the 50-day moving average. A failure to hold this area could trigger a technical pullback to the Fibonacci retracement levels of $96,000-$99,000. The level of $104,000 above becomes a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, and a breakthrough will challenge the bear-rich zone of $105,000-$106,000.
Funding dynamics: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, with an additional 2,494 BTC acquired on May 15, indicating that traditional institutions are still strategically building positions. On-chain data shows that 97% of Bitcoin holdings are in profit, but there has been no large-scale selling of holding addresses, reflecting market recognition of long-term value. Notably, Bitcoin's dominance has fallen to 62%, with some funds flowing into the altcoin market, which could suppress its short-term upward momentum.
Operational strategy: It is recommended to set a risk control line at $101,000, and to gradually build positions if there is a pullback to that area, with the initial target being the breakout situation at $104,000. If the price effectively stabilizes above $106,000, the mid-term target could be moved up to $110,000. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy trends, as the minutes of the monetary policy meeting on May 22 may trigger short-term fluctuations.
3. Ethereum: The struggle between upgrade benefits and short-seller attacks
Technical analysis: The daily MACD for ETH still maintains a golden cross, but a divergence signal appears in the 4-hour MACD, with RSI falling from 78 to around 55, indicating that short-term overbought pressure needs to be digested. The range of $2,450-$2,500 is a key support zone, which is both the neckline of this breakout and an important psychological level for bulls.
Fundamental drivers: The Pectra upgrade implemented in early May significantly improved network performance, with Layer-2 transaction volume increasing by 23%. The Base network processed 244 million transactions in a single day, and ecosystem activity continues to rise. The integration of AI applications with Ethereum has become a new highlight, with projects like ChatGPT managing funds through multi-signature contracts, bringing incremental demand for ETH. However, the SEC's approval progress for the Ethereum ETF remains uncertain, and the decision window at the end of May could trigger price fluctuations.
Capital trends: Although the market size of the Ethereum ETF is only 8% of that of Bitcoin, institutional interest in holding has gradually warmed up. On-chain data shows that a certain whale address has increased its holdings by over 450,000 ETH in the past month, but caution is needed against short-selling forces in the short term; for example, a certain address has a 20x short position on ETH with a loss of $12.06 million, which could trigger a local short squeeze.
Operational strategy: In the short term, focus on the $2,450 support level for potential trades; if it stabilizes, consider small positions for long trades with a target of $2,600; if it breaks down, be cautious of a pullback to the range of $2,300-$2,350. Mid to long-term investors can gradually position themselves in the range of $2,200-$2,400, with target price levels of $4,000-$5,000.
