Today, let's check the local trend of XRP. As of May 17, 08:00, XRP is currently quoted at 2.35, down about 1.24% from the previous K-line. There have been several consecutive bearish candles at the 4-hour level, with local pressure and structural pullback signals being quite evident.
I. Brief Technical Analysis
1️⃣ The moving average system has turned, and the short-term trend is weak.
EMA10 (2.41) and EMA20 (2.44) have crossed bearish;
MA10 and MA30 are both showing descending divergence;
The Alligator's three lines are opening downwards, indicating that the short-term market sentiment is in a retracement structure.
The price track (MID) of the BOLL indicator has broken down, and the current K-line is operating in the middle-lower track area, with a probability of testing the lower track support at 2.31-2.32 in line with the trend.
2️⃣ Daily level — the pullback is not complete, and the market consolidation has not stopped.
Yesterday's long bearish candle penetrated the 5-day and 10-day lines, breaking the rhythm of the current uptrend;
If it cannot recover above 2.38 today, it will officially confirm the beginning of a phase adjustment;
Strong support below is noted at 2.25-2.28, which is an area overlapping the daily MA30 with the BOLL middle track.
II. Trading Suggestions (based on short-term structure judgment, not investment advice)
Position range explains that the first resistance is at 2.38, where there is a dense moving average pressure, and the second resistance is at 2.41-2.43, where EMA20 overlaps with the BOLL middle track. The stop loss level is 2.31; if there is a strong breakthrough, the short position will be invalidated. Today's bearish target is at the lower track support of 2.22-2.28, along with structural targets.
III. Today's Expected Trend and Direction Judgment
Direction judgment: bearish consolidation, with a higher possibility of a downward test to fill the gap.
XRP's current uptrend has met resistance at 2.65, and there has been no significant volume to stop the fall during the pullback. Combined with the bearish arrangement of the 4-hour moving averages and the daily line just breaking the BOLL middle track, the current structure does not support a reversal. It is expected that today may see a downward test of the 2.25 area, followed by a consolidation and pullback, with fluctuations possible in the range of 200-300 points.
IV. Final Thoughts
The current position at 2.35 is neither an ideal short-selling point nor a suitable bottom-fishing point.
A conservative strategy is to 'short on pullbacks', while an aggressive strategy is to 'follow the trend after a breakdown'.
Note that the market sentiment is not static; if it stabilizes above 2.41 during the session, adjustments or halts may occur, requiring dynamic responses.
What do you think of this pullback? Do you think it can stop falling today?
Feel free to discuss in the comments!
