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泡沫之上-
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泡沫之上-
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韩元/美元和铜大概有180天左右的时滞性,20年之后几乎都是这个规律,最近这一次铜价大跌后快速反弹后,韩元跟随破掉关键支撑范围后,铜上去了,韩元还是升值的,加上AUD,ZAR这些都在升值,说明了大宗需求在放缓。 当然韩元升值也有美元下跌导致资本流动的因素,但USDKRW结合铜金比,都属于跌下去就没起来过。以及其他对大宗商品敏感的货币升值情况来看,市场可能在暗示的新的风险。这种情况只能解释为一点,上涨/情绪≠基本面/需求。 虽然工业商品下行,但是比较看好有些农产品可能出现的温和通胀。
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铜金比依旧暗示铜价有大跌的可能性
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黄金节奏完美利润拉爆,多头稍作调整将继续北上
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比特币衰竭明显,提防价格破位下行
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